NAM's continue to major hit for NC.....here is the NAM surface wind map this is sustained in knts and clearly shows the inland wind maxima, this would be sustained winds 50ish over Pitt Co...
Here is the 3k NAM wind gust map....it had the pressure at 946 which is a low but only 10 MB lower than what he is right now so maybe not that far off after all.....it crushes us...hrs of winds gusting 75-80 knts or almost 100 mph...this is going to probably be over done but even reducing it 10-15% gives us hurricane force gust for 4-6 hrs...
It should also be noted that the track the NAM's have matches almost identically to all the main models 18Z run...
As we get into HRRR range it will be interesting to see if it also shows similar winds. I remember it did quite well with that wind we had from Matthew a few years ago that the other models missed out on. I had to get a new roof from that one, gusted in the 70s here as that backside band moved through and models show something very similar this time. 3km is really enhancing the 925mb and 850mb winds too.
Well now its wait and see, if that western wind maxima forms as modeled eastern NC should see gust well into the 60-70 mph range...if not then 50-60 should be about it.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 5, 2019 10:26:25 GMT -5
NAM's still have strong 925MB winds 1800 or so ft up as the center crosses out over the Pamlico Sound very similar to Irene, if we can mix them down then gust to hurricane force will be likely in Pitt Co.....Peak official gust in Irene was 73 I believe so lets see if we can beat that one tonight...it will be close I think especially if the track in more left than forecast
Last Edit: Sept 5, 2019 10:30:14 GMT -5 by downeastnc
I just have a gut feeling this one will be a dud. Georgetown only seeing 45 mph gusts this hour. Gonna be hard to get those winds inland. Is the wind field expected to expand? It needs to
It's heeeeere. Just had my first noticeable wind gust along with a quick rain shower. He's taking his time getting here but I think it will be a decent hit. Crankyweatherguy on Twitter thinks it might pull inland before reaching Cape Lookout. Still lots of time ... will have to just wait and see.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
I just have a gut feeling this one will be a dud. Georgetown only seeing 45 mph gusts this hour. Gonna be hard to get those winds inland. Is the wind field expected to expand? It needs to
Models all have the sting jet type enhancement over the coastal plains.....you might even get 50-55 if your lucky and it forms....models all average around 60-80 for Pitt but likely overdone a little bit but a few gust to 70-75 are possible if it all comes together like modeled.