Post by WintervilleWx on Sept 2, 2019 20:44:33 GMT -5
Do we look to get much wind inland with the current forecast track? Seems they don’t generally change too much so I’m guessing a N.C. landfall is looking less likely. Would like to see some descent wind and heavy rain though.
Do we look to get much wind inland with the current forecast track? Seems they don’t generally change too much so I’m guessing a N.C. landfall is looking less likely. Would like to see some descent wind and heavy rain though.
We probably won't have a good handle on exactly what to expect (and where) for another day or so. In any case, Thursday is looking like a rainy, windy day. Best I can do.
Do we look to get much wind inland with the current forecast track? Seems they don’t generally change too much so I’m guessing a N.C. landfall is looking less likely. Would like to see some descent wind and heavy rain though.
We probably won't have a good handle on exactly what to expect (and where) for another day or so. In any case, Thursday is looking like a rainy, windy day. Best I can do.
I would say we are pretty good lock for gust to 40-60....all the model runs have 925mb winds above us in the 65-75 knt range....it will take the center going another 50 miles offshore, though we all know that it completely possible if not likely...based on the current runs though solid strong TS conditions seem likely.
Post by NCHurricane on Sept 2, 2019 21:50:05 GMT -5
The first thing is, the doggone thing has to move. I've never seen one sit so long in one spot and not lose very much of its structure. It's amazing. Unfortunately, it stopped right over the poor N Bahamas.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 2, 2019 22:39:04 GMT -5
ICON still a solid hit, its been landfalling the same spot for 7-8 runs now......gives Pitt Co 50 mph or higher gust for right at 14 hrs with 8 of those gusting to near or above hurricane force
Post by downeastnc on Sept 3, 2019 11:38:10 GMT -5
So the ICON and GFS have not wavered in their landfall over Cape Fear and MHX then over Hatteras track, the Euro is still barely offshore though many of its ens members are onshore similar or west of the GFS/ICON and those ens members are the ones that have Dorian as a Cat 1/2 coming up where as the Euro ens that miss all have a Cat3/4 so at this point the agreement is pretty darn good for at the very least a coastal runner right along the beaches to MHX then over Cedar Island into the Pamlico and then the center goes over Hatteras.....even the Euro that is offshore has winds in Pitt Co 50-60 and the weak GFS has us that high as well. ICON is closer to 70-80, really the NW inland wind max should form in this setup, I feel very confident that Pitt CO gets at least 40-60mph gust out of this....timing sucks though and will peak between 12a-6a Friday morning.
So the ICON and GFS have not wavered in their landfall over Cape Fear and MHX then over Hatteras track, the Euro is still barely offshore though many of its ens members are onshore similar or west of the GFS/ICON and those ens members are the ones that have Dorian as a Cat 1/2 coming up where as the Euro ens that miss all have a Cat3/4 so at this point the agreement is pretty darn good for at the very least a coastal runner right along the beaches to MHX then over Cedar Island into the Pamlico and then the center goes over Hatteras.....even the Euro that is offshore has winds in Pitt Co 50-60 and the weak GFS has us that high as well. ICON is closer to 70-80, really the NW inland wind max should form in this setup, I feel very confident that Pitt CO gets at least 40-60mph gust out of this....timing sucks though and will peak between 12a-6a Friday morning.