I for one am not concerned. I went through Isabel here in Elizabeth City. Yeah, I had $30,000 of home and vehicle damage, but I don’t think this affects us like Isabel did. We didn’t have power for 5 days and trees were down everywhere. That is my benchmark for winds. As far as flooding, Floyd and Matthew are my benchmarks. I don’t feel like this will approach any of those as far as winds, rainfall, or flash flooding up my way. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 3, 2019 17:43:31 GMT -5
It will be moving very fast so rainwater flooding should be minimal. And its coming from a totally different direction from Isabel so winds not as bad either.
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 3, 2019 19:50:55 GMT -5
Depends on where you are. Right on the coast its possible there may be sustained hurricane force winds in exposed areas, and strong damaging gusts well inland. Lots of storm surge in coastal areas.
Any big changes tonight? Local guys are saying 20-40 mph winds and a few inches of rain. Meh. Please tell me there is more!
Track seems pretty locked in. I think 20-40 is a bit low, more like 30-50 for Pitt county area and 3-5” of rain. 00z Euro is very close to SC coast at hour 48.
00Z Euro had 80-100 mph gust for almost all of central eastern NC...direct landfall over Swansboro moving NNE into up over the eastern end of the Pamlico River.....UKIE/ICON/GFS were all very similar with the GFS being the east outlier clipping Lookout and Hatteras the rest where almost identical to Euro as was the 3k NAM, all show gust well to hurricane force or better for Pitt Co....
Keep the model analyses coming in, dude! I'm a big fan of the service you're providing.
UKIE stayed the same right over MHX into sound then Hatteras from the backside.....pressure is 955 and from how the storm looks now I suspect it would be a large solid Cat 2
Post by downeastnc on Sept 4, 2019 13:44:55 GMT -5
Euro was east of the 00Z but a bit west of the 06Z.....overall the ukie/Euro/Nam's/Icon are all within 50 miles or so of each other....consensus on the wind gust is anywhere from 55-85 mph....a lot a things will make or break the west side wind maxima.....could be a sting jet, could be some dry air which would cause big downbursty type gust etc against a lower background wind of say 20-25 mph.....
Post by wintervillewx on Sept 4, 2019 13:50:38 GMT -5
So is there a general westward trend? Likely increasing impacts in PGV area? On a side note, to my untrained eye he looks slightly better organized though I realize he’s forecast to weaken.....
So is there a general westward trend? Likely increasing impacts in PGV area? On a side note, to my untrained eye he looks slightly better organized though I realize he’s forecast to weaken.....
If anything the trend today is slightly east......this would decrease winds for us......he is doing much better this afternoon.
Post by wintervillewx on Sept 4, 2019 14:40:55 GMT -5
So Downeast, thanks for your replies by the way. The maps you posted earlier were from the 0z euro? Was the 12z euro close to it looked like a descent hit for us.
So Downeast, thanks for your replies by the way. The maps you posted earlier were from the 0z euro? Was the 12z euro close to it looked like a descent hit for us.
Peak gust for us on latest Euro was 60-65ishfor Gville gradient was real tight....eastern Pitt Co where I live was close to 70, the western side was 50-55....
Post by downeastnc on Sept 4, 2019 15:35:39 GMT -5
NAM 3k continues the inland track at 18Z, the wind maps are brutal, has us 75-80 knts for 6 hrs, granted this is probably over done but even if you reduce it 10-15 knts it still gust to hurricane force.....the real question though is does it have the track right, this is the same general track the ICON was on forever and the UKie is pretty close and the big Euro wind map up thread was when the Euro ran this track.....guess we will know in about 40 hrs....