Post by downeastnc on Sept 4, 2019 17:01:59 GMT -5
GFS crawls along Shackleford Banks from Lookout to Hatteras....weakest with the winds as well with Pitt Co gusting to mid 50's.....its also 970ish versus the 960ish other models....Matthew tracked further offshore and did at least that good here and had way worse structure than Dorian will have....Matthew had a lot of Oct frontal passage help though so they are not quite that comparable. Irene is a much better analog IMO and storms with big sloppy eyes tend to have giant wind fields and tend to hold those long after interacting with land.
My prediction for Pitt Co is 65-75 top gust around dawn Friday.....there will be a 4-6 hr period we we flirt with hurricane gust...2-3 hrs either side of that we will see healthy gust in the 45-60 range.....
Post by wintervillewx on Sept 4, 2019 18:04:13 GMT -5
How much rain are you thinking? Irene lasted quite a while and it seems like we were close to 11” of rain? Irene did have some nice winds. If that’s the analog here, I’m ready!
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 4, 2019 19:41:14 GMT -5
Just read where recon found 120 knots fl level wind in western eyewall. If it comes in as a cat3 and follows the Euro track the outer banks up to Norfolk va will get hammered.
Saw a wind reading somewhere of 106 knots. That’s 121/122 mph. That’s quite impressive. Seems like a foregone conclusion that we get back to Cat 3. Chances of a Cat 4?
Post by downeastnc on Sept 4, 2019 20:27:51 GMT -5
Chat is open now it wont be busy and it might take awhile to get responses but it will be busier tomorrow as things do downhill assuming he doesnt pull a left turn surprise like so many of these storms do
Post by downeastnc on Sept 4, 2019 21:21:08 GMT -5
NAM's continue to major hit for NC.....here is the NAM surface wind map this is sustained in knts and clearly shows the inland wind maxima, this would be sustained winds 50ish over Pitt Co...
Here is the 3k NAM wind gust map....it had the pressure at 946 which is a low but only 10 MB lower than what he is right now so maybe not that far off after all.....it crushes us...hrs of winds gusting 75-80 knts or almost 100 mph...this is going to probably be over done but even reducing it 10-15% gives us hurricane force gust for 4-6 hrs...
It should also be noted that the track the NAM's have matches almost identically to all the main models 18Z run...