GFS gives us 4-6", Euro gives us 4-6"...the NAM kicks to far east to fast as it isnt putting the energy together the same way the Euro and GFS....it also has rain over us which isnt going to happen....all bomb the heck out of this thing with around a 980ish low.....there is still several days to go so dont get to happy yet, we all know how easily these storms can disappear or trend the wrong way.
GFS gives us 4-6", Euro gives us 4-6"...the NAM kicks to far east to fast as it isnt putting the energy together the same way the Euro and GFS....it also has rain over us which isnt going to happen....all bomb the heck out of this thing with around a 980ish low.....there is still several days to go so dont get to happy yet, we all know how easily these storms can disappear or trend the wrong way.
Would expect better looking precip shields with the low as strong as it is. It is what it is I guess and I suspect given history that we see some increase in qpf totals before the event.
Yeah it tilts a bit more negative every run this should allow more NW precip shield to build.....the NAM OTS solution is a outlier as it struggles to center a low it forms a low offshore then bombs a low out just to its west then fujiwaras the closer one offshore as the first low lifts north....thats a dang odd solution...if it moved more north like the others then the warm nose wouldnt dig in as much, instead it sits south of us the whole time then goes east.
I am not horribly concerned with any warm nose, I dont see this low running such a northerly course. I think it will be more ne instead of nne. There is nothing off new england to block it and force the more northward course. I think we will be on the edge so thats why we wont have warm nose issues. I wish the low would form closer to the coast, that way we could get more of the precip field, but I am afraid we just catch the edge while it rushes by to bury new england. The more negative tilt and the phase looks promising, but we are still missing a couple of key elements for a 89 type storm, mainly, a low over the great lakes to reinforce the cold air, and some kind of blocking system off to the ne to help squeeze it. My guess is maybe 2 or 3 inches locally somewhere east of 17, with a rather dramatic cut-off line west of that. Most places along the beaches get a dusting to an inch. Ground temps will be pretty cold so thats not an issue.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 1, 2018 9:55:53 GMT -5
Yeah don’t put stock into the 12km nam. It has a triple barrel low and is getting way to confused with all the energy. The 3km nam at hr 60 is a much better representation of the energy with one single low. And it’s much colder. I believe it may be amped alittle too much too.
I am not horribly concerned with any warm nose, I dont see this low running such a northerly course. I think it will be more ne instead of nne. There is nothing off new england to block it and force the more northward course. I think we will be on the edge so thats why we wont have warm nose issues. I wish the low would form closer to the coast, that way we could get more of the precip field, but I am afraid we just catch the edge while it rushes by to bury new england. The more negative tilt and the phase looks promising, but we are still missing a couple of key elements for a 89 type storm, mainly, a low over the great lakes to reinforce the cold air, and some kind of blocking system off to the ne to help squeeze it. My guess is maybe 2 or 3 inches locally somewhere east of 17, with a rather dramatic cut-off line west of that. Most places along the beaches get a dusting to an inch. Ground temps will be pretty cold so thats not an issue.
ALL the models suggest otherwise...and trust me you dont want it to much closer to the coast....this a capture and phase setup there doesnt need to be a blocking high and there is a a cold high to the north ( but really its cold in every direction but east )......you better hope the NAM is wrong or you end up all rain except for onset and probably some changeover at the end while we all deal with ice and RDU gets all the snow....if the GFS and Euro are right then 4-6" for a good chunk of eastern NC is more likely with a solid 2-3" for you backyard at least....
All the SE posters on AmericanWx are talking about how this is a I-95 west special and they're gonna get slammed while us in far Eastern NC see nothing but rain or a mix.
Last Edit: Jan 1, 2018 10:39:50 GMT -5 by tramadoc
All the SE posters on AmericanWx are talking about how this is a I-95 west special and they're gonna get slammed while us in far Eastern NC see nothing but rain or a mix.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 1, 2018 11:21:43 GMT -5
Always a great sign for us when the global board is hugging the long range nam like it’s the last life jacket on a sinking ship hahaha
This is a perfect setup so far for us
Our area is in the “middle” of most model solutions. I always go with the middle ground.
And we haven’t been bullseyed yet either with models so very close to nailing us.
Nam loves to pick up tiny meso conditions due to its precipitation algorithm and will cling onto the wrong energies just like it is doing. If you notice the anomalies are slowly working out inside 60hrs.
IMO coastal SC needs to be treating roads yeaterday haha and this evening I think we may be sitting in a perfect spot to get some real snow our way.
All the SE posters on AmericanWx are talking about how this is a I-95 west special and they're gonna get slammed while us in far Eastern NC see nothing but rain or a mix.
Its possible but the NAM is pretty much all by itself, it forms the main low were all the other models do but unlike them it bombs a new surface low right off the SC coast.....this allows the warm nose to get much further inland than on the other models....I would take a blend of the Nam and the GFS/Euro for now.....the western guys are gonna hug the NAM like mad since its the only one showing them having a chance....so far the GFS/CMC/UK are all still offshore with the low and all snow for inland eastern NC....we actually need them to come closer to the coast or get a better phase and more negative tilt to expand the precip further NW.....
Always a great sign for us when the global board is hugging the long range nam like it’s the last life jacket on a sinking ship hahaha
This is a perfect setup so far for us
Our area is in the “middle” of most model solutions. I always go with the middle ground.
And we haven’t been bullseyed yet either with models so very close to nailing us.
Nam loves to pick up tiny meso conditions due to its precipitation algorithm and will cling onto the wrong energies just like it is doing. If you notice the anomalies are slowly working out inside 60hrs.
IMO coastal SC needs to be treating roads yeaterday haha and this evening I think we may be sitting in a perfect spot to get some real snow our way.
Yeah you dont wanna be the bullseye until inside of 24 hrs really.....I would rather just get 1-2" of all snow with cold temps than have it do like the NAM.....
All the SE posters on AmericanWx are talking about how this is a I-95 west special and they're gonna get slammed while us in far Eastern NC see nothing but rain or a mix.
Nearly all of them live west of I-95: Raleigh this, Charlotte that, Apex and Greensboro the other. Mountain posters, foothill posters, I-85 posters, Atlanta posters, GSP posters -- all of them pawing the entrails for any sign they might get a flake in their own irrelevant back yard -- totally ignoring the story, which appears to be an eastern NC Storm. It's so boring!
That used to be a solid board. It's a shame what has been allowed to happen to it.
All the SE posters on AmericanWx are talking about how this is a I-95 west special and they're gonna get slammed while us in far Eastern NC see nothing but rain or a mix.
Nearly all of them live west of I-95: Raleigh this, Charlotte that, Apex and Greensboro the other. Mountain posters, foothill posters, I-85 posters, Atlanta posters, GSP posters -- all of them pawing the entrails for any sign they might get a flake in their own irrelevant back yard -- totally ignoring the story, which appears to be an eastern NC Storm. It's so boring!
That used to be a solid board. It's a shame what has been allowed to happen to it.
That board will be useless for the next 2 days as they will only focus on the areas you have pointed out.
They seem to have a disregard for what happens east of 95 along with the SE corner of the state along with the low country of SC. It's like they want us to fail.
They seem to have a disregard for what happens east of 95 along with the SE corner of the state along with the low country of SC. It's like they want us to fail.
Meh everyone wants snow in their backyard......you want it to stay more east thus making this a fail for them. I dont really begrudge them that, if I had to choose between 1-3" of snow on the western fringe or .50" ice so that more inland people can get in the game they would be disappointed cause I am taking the 1-3" snow. The entire state cant really cash in at the same time at least on higher totals so its either them or us.....but dont fault anyone for wanting to be the one with snow in their backyard.
All the globals are still against the NAM.....we dont need it that much closer than the globals have it we just need it to tilt more negative we are very close to a solid 4-6" event right now.