Have not seen any snow on the coast for several years. Only a little sleet pack a couple years ago. Would love to get 4-6 inches here, bit will be happy with 1-3 if thats all we can squeeze out. Not too excited about this set up, blocking does not appear to be right and no northern low in place, but we shall see.
This thing is very Dec 1989.....thats basically what the NAM just ran if it went another 24 hrs......not sure why you wouldnt be excited about this setup.....at this point though you coastal folks need to hope the NW trend is less than 50-100 miles....
That's my worry now - too much of a NW trend for ENC.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 31, 2017 16:44:21 GMT -5
I know it’s offtopic but I’m sitting at 21 and ripping tiny flakes with a 18:1 ration right now in the mountains. A dusting on everything. Even roads. It just instantly stuck. That’s how snow in N.C. would be too if we get some. Boy it’s COLD up here
Warmnose...lol...that is why he is worried!! Beaufort normally is snow or rain..no in between.
Yep. The nose always gets me. Especially when I lived in Martin County. Maybe moving a bit more west will help, but I'm always pessimistic about borderline events.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 31, 2017 18:18:49 GMT -5
The warm nose is tiny, and very shallow, any kind of moderate precip would easily defeat it....we have the cold now we need to QPF otherwise its all moot anyways......I will take my chances with the low 100 miles closer to the coast with QPF at or over 1"....
The warm nose is tiny, and very shallow, any kind of moderate precip would easily defeat it....we have the cold now we need to QPF otherwise its all moot anyways......I will take my chances with the low 100 miles closer to the coast with QPF at or over 1"....
We are a long way out still for this to trend stronger and closer to the coast and increase the depth and strength of the warm nose.
The warm nose is tiny, and very shallow, any kind of moderate precip would easily defeat it....we have the cold now we need to QPF otherwise its all moot anyways......I will take my chances with the low 100 miles closer to the coast with QPF at or over 1"....
We are a long way out still for this to trend stronger and closer to the coast and increase the depth and strength of the warm nose.
No the atmosphere will be plenty cold with tons of cold air literally ALL around us......the warm nose wont be a issue this time around even if the NAM shows one it will take a storm track right along the coast to screw us and at this point we are still struggling to get enough west trend just to give us a few inches.....also the storm track seems to be more N/S this is better for allowing the cold air to crash to the core of the SLP. Basically if the low is bombing and moving up 150 miles off our coast we get epic snowstorm....sure we might mix pingers in from time to time but there is no way with the setup that this is some rainy 33 storm for us....its not even likely that its a ice storm, the warm nose on the last NAM was 0-1C....yawn......IF this thing comes west or phases better we get 3-6" or more of pretty much pure powder that falls onto frozen ground, we are at lowest sun angle and shortest daylight periods of the year and ratios could be pretty sick once this thing gets wrapped up ( assuming it does ) we could even do really well with only .4-.6" QPF....the chances this thing ends up so far west we have BL issues for real is slim IMO. Remember stronger phasing lows pull the cold air into the center from the west....if anything stronger and closer HELP reduce the chances of the warm nose getting us in this setup.
Last Edit: Dec 31, 2017 21:23:21 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Dec 31, 2017 21:56:33 GMT -5
NAM has a 972 mb bomb off ILM but the NW precip shield is meh....not sure why...nice deform band at 84 hrs over the sounds only shows 1-2" for us....still the take away is snow chances are looking pretty good for at least some minor accumulations for PGV and most of eastern NC....and really with a 978 mb low off SE we should see more than .3" QPF I would think....
NAM has a 972 mb bomb off ILM but the NW precip shield is meh....not sure why...nice deform band at 84 hrs over the sounds only shows 1-2" for us....still the take away is snow chances are looking pretty good for at least some minor accumulations for PGV and most of eastern NC....and really with a 978 mb low off SE we should see more than .3" QPF I would think....
Me and Tyler concluded that the hard right turn at hour 78 is due to the third piece of energy trying to phase in. We need that energy to phase quicker or back off. Then we will see the low come further north. I just can’t get optomistic abt this. Just feels like a close miss to me.
NAM has a 972 mb bomb off ILM but the NW precip shield is meh....not sure why...nice deform band at 84 hrs over the sounds only shows 1-2" for us....still the take away is snow chances are looking pretty good for at least some minor accumulations for PGV and most of eastern NC....and really with a 978 mb low off SE we should see more than .3" QPF I would think....
Me and Tyler concluded that the hard right turn at hour 78 is due to the third piece of energy trying to phase in. We need that energy to phase quicker or back off. Then we will see the low come further north. I just can’t get optomistic abt this. Just feels like a close miss to me.
Still there should be a more expansive precip shield on the N and W side....it seems we are stuck with a 1-3" event if we are lucky at this point.....still though we are 72+ hrs out and every day it gets a tiny bit better.....by Tues when the waves are better sampled hopefully the models will have the timing of the waves down better and this can juice up for us.
Euro is a solid hit. As is the German, NAVGEM and UK with 2-5” and likely higher due to ratios being more like 14:1 since upper level and lower temps will be quite cold. Here’s a select few images to summarize the 00z runs.
Nam went nuts for SC with some very high totals again over SC. It brings 9 inches up to just about kinston then the northern progression ends. As it takes that hard right turn. This one is going to be close to a triple phaser and this potential for a beast is possible as is a shove to the east leaving us just too far west. Gfs has a decent hit now as well and it would take but a 50 mile track to the NW to get us in the gfs heavier totals.