Post by downeastnc on Dec 28, 2017 14:03:35 GMT -5
Euro just gave eastern NC 4-6" with 12"+ by the VA border northward and even more up in Jersey, if we are going to get a legit storm out of this pattern this seems are best chance....
We've chased these kinds of carrots before. Any time the models keep moving the threat out a few days at a time we never get there. We are going into the ice box and I have serious doubts we see anything frozen falling from the sky. Should see ponds frozen over really good though.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 28, 2017 17:19:37 GMT -5
We will see, the GFS is not showing any signs of being like the Euro/CMC and they are both trending to further east and weak as well so its not a good look....
Post by downeastnc on Dec 28, 2017 20:02:21 GMT -5
Meh the models are terrible at keying on potential waves in this kind of pattern, that's why they tend to lose storms in the mid range, one of the waves dropping down next week will pop a low off that will get us....the hints for a storm in the runs are there....I think we get something next week between Tues and Thurs.
Last Edit: Dec 28, 2017 20:02:46 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by lexxnchloe on Dec 28, 2017 21:53:18 GMT -5
A 60 degree day would feel so nice about now. Saturday wont be bad before the deep freeze once again. Since the miserable cold began we have had several threats but the closer they got they went away.
Honestly it wont matter till Sunday, the models can do what they want but until the wave gets in over Canada/US we wont know how exactly the setup is, the models at one point had a really nice storm and got away from it...I mean how many times have we see a 7-10 day threat fade in the 4-7 day range only to comeback in the short term once it gets into areas we get sampling from..
Honestly it wont matter till Sunday, the models can do what they want but until the wave gets in over Canada/US we wont know how exactly the setup is, the models at one point had a really nice storm and got away from it...I mean how many times have we see a 7-10 day threat fade in the 4-7 day range only to comeback in the short term once it gets into areas we get sampling from..
Yeah we’ve seen that many times except in this cold pattern... every storm has trended more suppressed so far. Maybe this one will be different since it involves phasing though. All a matter of timing and to phase this one we need the lead wave to slow down a bit and the wave behind it to speed up and catch it for a full phase... but not too early or it runs inland. Delicate balance here. UK track is about perfect but it’s all alone for now.
Honestly it wont matter till Sunday, the models can do what they want but until the wave gets in over Canada/US we wont know how exactly the setup is, the models at one point had a really nice storm and got away from it...I mean how many times have we see a 7-10 day threat fade in the 4-7 day range only to comeback in the short term once it gets into areas we get sampling from..
Yeah we’ve seen that many times except in this cold pattern... every storm has trended more suppressed so far. Maybe this one will be different since it involves phasing though. All a matter of timing and to phase this one we need the lead wave to slow down a bit and the wave behind it to speed up and catch it for a full phase... but not too early or it runs inland. Delicate balance here. UK track is about perfect but it’s all alone for now.
Lets not forget a few days ago the storm that gave me a possible sleet pellet this morning was supposed to plaster eastern NC with 6-12.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 29, 2017 16:19:31 GMT -5
NAM may be trying to bring back the NYD threat....significant differences for SC and if this trend continues and the storm comes back then that is right in the 3 day window we would expect to see the models begin to bring the storm back.....remember the models had this NY storm for DAYS......