Post by snowlover91 on Dec 29, 2017 17:13:46 GMT -5
18z GFS and 12z NAVGEM with a significant north trend and very close to something big. It wouldn’t take much to do it... not likely but still possible.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 30, 2017 2:21:18 GMT -5
All models ticked faster with the phase for the 3rd storm and the Euro/UK both have a 1-2” snow for Eastern NC. The GEFS also jumped with a mean qpf of .2 for Eastern NC compared to nothing in the prior run. It has 5 members with 2” or more of snow now... compared to 0 before.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 30, 2017 11:08:08 GMT -5
GFS made another jump towards getting the energy to phase fast enough for a Eastern NC storm... not quite there but it does give the coast some light snows. NAM made a big jump too at hour 84 with a phase starting much quicker than other models. Let's see if the UK and Euro follow this trend or not.
3:30pm and checking in on the weather for first time today; nice to see your updates - had totally given up on any snow. Hope returns but am aware the overnights can just as easily shift right back out to sea. One step at a time ... fingers crossed.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Post by downeastnc on Dec 30, 2017 21:36:45 GMT -5
NAM has the Mon storm bringing snow to SE NC.....be nice to see it really blow that up some.....I felt like Wed over performed precip wise in both amount and scope need that to happen again.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 31, 2017 10:00:30 GMT -5
This latest NAM run.....I dunno man there seems to be a growing chance this thing phases/captures early enough to put eastern NC in the hunt for a bigtime snow event....
If we get snow ... you do realize that will only make it COLDER. I'm getting flashbacks from the brutal winter of '77 when the Potomac was so frozen one could drive a car across it and an ice breaker was needed to keep the shipping channel open on the Chesapeake Bay. Oh please, let's not have a replay of that.
Will be riding my bike to the grocery store later, and am soooo not looking forward to it. (Was an idiot to not do it yesterday.)
Edit: Wimped out and took a taxi cab. (Actually it's more like "got sensible and took a taxi cab.")
This latest NAM run.....I dunno man there seems to be a growing chance this thing phases/captures early enough to put eastern NC in the hunt for a bigtime snow event....
The problem is we still need that phase to happen sooner. With this NAM run the only areas seeing snow will be extreme coastal areas and maybe New Bern. We are running out of time for a 6-12 hr sooner phase. WE NEED the trough to go neutral sooner by 100-200 miles so we need atleast a 6hr sooner phase.
I wonder how this compares to christmas 89...if any? Snow in jacksonville, FL...then big time snow up the Carolina coast!
Of course that would be a miss for me in Raleigh. Please throw snow back to raleigh. I have not seen anything this season.
Almost identical origin of low pressure. Only difference is that the 89 storm held a NE track. This one is likely going to go up the coast and obliterate New England.
Due to that track difference I expect the phasing of the 89 storm was a partial phase and the surface pressure did not get pulled north.
This storm has the potential to be a fully phasing bomb. There are actually 3 pieces of upper level energy that could make this a rare triple phaser. Models have gone away from that but still possible.
So the gfs solution of sub 960 in New England is total possible
Last Edit: Dec 31, 2017 11:26:56 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Have not seen any snow on the coast for several years. Only a little sleet pack a couple years ago. Would love to get 4-6 inches here, bit will be happy with 1-3 if thats all we can squeeze out. Not too excited about this set up, blocking does not appear to be right and no northern low in place, but we shall see.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 31, 2017 13:33:04 GMT -5
Well all models now snow snow in Eastern NC. Here is the UK total qpf map and then Euro snow map. Big changes with earlier phasing. Even the NAVGEM has a bomb and temps in the 20s for everyone on the Euro. With the frozen ground things will stick no problem.
Have not seen any snow on the coast for several years. Only a little sleet pack a couple years ago. Would love to get 4-6 inches here, bit will be happy with 1-3 if thats all we can squeeze out. Not too excited about this set up, blocking does not appear to be right and no northern low in place, but we shall see.
This thing is very Dec 1989.....thats basically what the NAM just ran if it went another 24 hrs......not sure why you wouldnt be excited about this setup.....at this point though you coastal folks need to hope the NW trend is less than 50-100 miles....