Post by snowlover91 on Jan 1, 2018 12:02:15 GMT -5
The UK just came in with a solid Eastern NC hit. Has .75 to 1” of qpf across the area, would be good for a solid 8-10” snow assuming no warm nose or mixing issues.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 1, 2018 12:04:13 GMT -5
12z Globals have come toward nam.
U.K is the beefiest with .75+ qpf now CMC is .5+ Gfs is the weak link which sucks haha but still drops snow
I fully expect the nam to back off it’s amped solution and the Globals to keep bumping up until we get a middle ground. Tyler seems to think 1” qpf is not out of the equation and that would be about the middle ground of a blend between Globals and nam.
The UK just came in with a solid Eastern NC hit. Has .75 to 1” of qpf across the area, would be good for a solid 8-10” snow assuming no warm nose or mixing issues.
CMC was an improvement as well. I suspect if this system follows history that we will see some uptick in qpf totals.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 1, 2018 12:47:11 GMT -5
My main concern is the warm nose. I want to see more runs of the 3km nam and how it handles that, and also the RGEM too. If we can stay all snow we would be looking at 6-10” if not more imo.
Euro holds serve....NAM all by itself with the extra low firing right on SC coast....WPC going with a blend and leaving the NAM out for now.....the Navgem had the best look and was a good blend of the Nam Vs GFS/Euro/UK 989 mb low 100 miles due east of Hat snow line in the sounds...that would be a monster for us think Dec 2000.
At this point we seemed locked in for 2-3" in Pitt Co IMO, WPC has us at 50% for 4" or more.....we are within 48hrs now so this is starting to get real....MHX will go with WSW for all counties east of Hwy 17 tomorrow for sure if this all holds up.
Last Edit: Jan 1, 2018 14:03:17 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Naw globals are not irrelevant at this point even the WPC throws the NAM out because it runs that extra coastal...its all by itself more or less within 48 hrs of the event....I still think something in the middle of the two camps is the most realistic and thats good for us.
Naw globals are not irrelevant at this point even the WPC throws the NAM out because it runs that extra coastal...its all by itself more or less within 48 hrs of the event....I still think something in the middle of the two camps is the most realistic and thats good for us.
Remember the globals all had that just a few runs ago and are finally dropping it. The 3km nam I posted has no double low and the wpc busted horribly in the early December snow event, as did the NWS. I wouldn’t put much weight into them because they like to throw the nam out and then get burned for doing so... and NAM isn’t alone. Every high res model shows similar like the RGEM, SREF, ARW, NMMM and the RGEM ensembles.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 1, 2018 14:41:58 GMT -5
Yeah Globals are still very much relevant right now. Inside 48 nam and Rgem can pick up on the specifics but until then I’m not discounting all models for high res models.
12km mam is currently the only model to still have a split low. And given nam history of being over amped I still will say a nice blend of all models is very likely and should result in a basically all snow event
They seem to have a disregard for what happens east of 95 along with the SE corner of the state along with the low country of SC. It's like they want us to fail.
I don't mean to be a jerk but the same can be said for this board. It is greenville only. Not my original vision...but it is what it is. I just hope I can get 1 to 2 inches here and I will be happy.
They seem to have a disregard for what happens east of 95 along with the SE corner of the state along with the low country of SC. It's like they want us to fail.
I don't mean to be a jerk but the same can be said for this board. It is greenville only. Not my original vision...but it is what it is. I just hope I can get 1 to 2 inches here and I will be happy.
i think there is only a handful of us that are west of 95 on here.
