I don't mean to be a jerk but the same can be said for this board. It is greenville only. Not my original vision...but it is what it is. I just hope I can get 1 to 2 inches here and I will be happy.
i think there is only a handful of us that are west of 95 on here.
Exactly tom. We had some members west of here for a while..lowpressure...cadwedge...but they left for the very reason we trash the big board!
i think the west trend will continue. Wont be at all surprised if its rain from eastern nc to norfolk.
It's possible but the nam is on an island by itself right now. This is not something unusual for the nam to do either. It's been known to over amp systems. Of course that doesn't mean it's wrong now but I will remain suspect and go with a blend of all the models and listen to the nws offices for accurate unbiased forecast.
i think the west trend will continue. Wont be at all surprised if its rain from eastern nc to norfolk.
no way....worse case for a lot of us is ice, this Nam run actually is a bit better the low tracks funny and there is no precip to the NW which there should be but it has eastern NC in a serious snow band even the beaches will end up with several inches as the low lifts out, I still think eastern NC is golden and will get 6"+....similar to the area the WPC has highlighted thats the sweet spot.
Not to rain on everyone elses parade but im praying its further east so im on the edge of precip. Would rather have 1 inch of snow than an inch of rain.
i think the west trend will continue. Wont be at all surprised if its rain from eastern nc to norfolk.
no way....worse case for a lot of us is ice, this Nam run actually is a bit better the low tracks funny and there is no precip to the NW which there should be but it has eastern NC in a serious snow band even the beaches will end up with several inches as the low lifts out, I still think eastern NC is golden and will get 6"+....similar to the area the WPC has highlighted thats the sweet spot.
We will see. One thing i will look at is if richmond ends up with accumulating snow. If so, its rain for eastern NC.
Yeah the chances there is a 976 low off ILM like the NAm has with the precip barely making it west of I 95 seems suspect to me...no way there is no huge deform band back NW of the center somewhere....
NAM 3K gives eastern NC a legit blizzard at hr 60, heavy snow with surface winds over 40 MPH so while I hate the run up till then its pretty awesome after that however it also has the surface low at 958 MB 100 miles east of Hatteras this is obviously WAY WAY WAY overdone as that would rival if not beat any of the great NE bombs and its easier to get lower pressures further north. Something more in line with 975mb and up seems more likely and in line with the other global models....we need the NAM to stay weaker with the low as that would prevent the warm nose it shows getting far enough inland since it wants to track it so close to the coast.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 1, 2018 16:13:31 GMT -5
I wouldn’t recommend the 12km nam, it does poorly especially in dynamic setups and the 3km is much better. It’s my go to model along with the RGEM inside 48 hours. For reference, the 3km is showing .8 in qpf over 3 hours as heavy snow... in other words 8-10” of snow in only 3 hours. Here is the snow total map through 60 and radar showing that band crushing us.
The nam is on crack. It has a well known heavy bias for snow potential anyhow, but the last several solutions from it have been from la-la land. The twin low fujiwara dance was hysterical. Btw lex, 300 miles east and we wont see anything at all. Even 100 miles would leave us dry. As usual for us here, a 20-30 mile shift is going to make or break us. Right now the coast to maybe hwy 17 is still the sweet spot. If we wish it a touch west, it always ends up going way west and we all get cold rain from a warm nose lol.