So when does the second one of these arctic blast hit, I am going to go with sometime between Jan 30-Feb 10 and last 2-3 weeks like this one.....winter isn't gonna be gone its just a Jan thaw ( which we need) I fully believe we will get another brutal cold period starting around the time I listed above....
What gives you that idea? I haven't seen any evidence of a SSW. Or just gut? The PV is supposed to regain strength and go back to it's normal location
The Euro weeklies are showing some cooler weather end of January to early February and we’ve been consistently cold (below normal) this winter... so the warmup may just be a relaxation as the pattern reloads. Hard to know for sure though but several seasonal models also indicate a BN February is on tap too like the CFS.
Mostly that just tends to be the way it plays out, we will see a few weeks of average to above average temps with a few colder shots thrown in as Canada/Siberia rebuild the cold and then it will dump south again....I guess its called the slosh theory now but basically the PV slides over SE Canada then back to Siberia and then back to SE Canada....if it does come back its gonna be even colder as midJan to late Feb is climo wise usually the peak coldest time.
Here's a photo I took today of the Tar River at Falkland.
What other areas did you investigate? Did you check out memorial drive? Heard the cypress swamp at river park north is frozen with the all the huge trees wrapped up in ice too.
Mostly that just tends to be the way it plays out, we will see a few weeks of average to above average temps with a few colder shots thrown in as Canada/Siberia rebuild the cold and then it will dump south again....I guess its called the slosh theory now but basically the PV slides over SE Canada then back to Siberia and then back to SE Canada....if it does come back its gonna be even colder as midJan to late Feb is climo wise usually the peak coldest time.
It's crazy how BN we have been since the start of December. This is an anomaly in a LaNina.
Well the warm up wont last long and the models all have a interesting look around Jan 17/18th.....
Still its a week away. the GFS has a very sharp trough that bottoms out south of us and sometimes those setups are enough to fire a weak coastal and we have gotten a lot of 3-4" storms that way....though it would be better to see some help moving in at 500....still its a decent look given the range, could end up being one of them winters.
Well the warm up wont last long and the models all have a interesting look around Jan 17/18th.....
Still its a week away. the GFS has a very sharp trough that bottoms out south of us and sometimes those setups are enough to fire a weak coastal and we have gotten a lot of 3-4" storms that way....though it would be better to see some help moving in at 500....still its a decent look given the range, could end up being one of them winters.
EURO is much more neutral tilted and it goes negative over NC. Need a trend to go negative sooner. If we don't get surface low help this will remain a West NC event. As the upper energy is our only fuel right now.
all those maps say they were made on jan 09. are they still the same now?
Here's something Allan Huffman tweeted this morning:
"The 00z ECMWF continues to develop a wave along the front on Wednesday and brings a round of snow for Ga/Carolinas/Va. The EPS has some support. The GFS/Canadian do not support. The GEFS is marginally supportive. Consistency of ECMWF is noteworthy here. So something to watch."
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 12, 2018 11:11:18 GMT -5
Right on cue. GFS just came in and gives us some surface low love! good 3-5 inches across a lot of NC as a nice light snow. If EURO holds thread will be made.