Post by snowlover91 on Nov 30, 2017 23:45:07 GMT -5
One concern I do have is models are trending away from a sustained -NAO block and to more typical Nina ridging with a SE Atlantic ridge nudging into the area. This favors the mountains and western NC but would bring a cold rain to central and eastern areas.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 2, 2017 14:07:03 GMT -5
Latest euro!! Rember is not far out. Less than a week...
This storm occurs during the day.. a night time start would give us much more snow across the area. So watch trends for a bigger cold air push or a later arrival of precip.
This is the first model set (12z) that the euro and gfsboth show this event. Gfs is much weaker though.
Given the extent of cold to our north it is reasonable to hope and even expect our temps to tick a degree or two coolerfor this event.
Last Edit: Dec 2, 2017 14:12:12 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 2, 2017 18:07:52 GMT -5
Definitely an interesting setup. The moisture looks like it’ll be there... the main question is if it’ll be cold enough at the surface? 850s are plenty cold at -2 to -4 across the area so I have to think with good rates that cold air will cool the column to isothermal, 32-33 degrees with a heavy wet snow.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 3, 2017 8:34:57 GMT -5
While euro and gfs both backed off some on our threat this Friday I really like our position for this event.
GFS: very strong wave about 50 miles off the coast. 1+” of QPF across large portions of the area. The 850mb freezing line holds in the normal Greene county area.. for a storm that strong and that close to the coast that’s pretty good for an 850mb line.
Euro: much weaker and further offshore. 850s are frozen all the way to the coast. ALSO euro is slower than gfs with this storm starting early (6am) in the morning vs afternoon of the day before
Bottom line: if we do our normal meet in the middle we get a very nice solution for Eastern NC. Also the NAM At 84 is MUCH colder than gfs and euro so there is room for more cold.
All in all u have to like our position. 130 hrs out with enough time for one last move in the models and we are sittin right smack dab in the middle of the solutions
Last Edit: Dec 3, 2017 8:35:21 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 3, 2017 16:22:23 GMT -5
EURO EPS just threw us a massive bone. first is member 44 lol. I went through all the members and 8-12 of them are actually decent hits for Eastern NC. It seems like the EPS has trended toward a phasing event!
The composite plot below is fairly impressive...
Temps are still marginal but these members do indeed support snow/ice for most of the event
Doesnt look like it will get nearly cold enough for snow.
Models show only the last 2000-2500 feet of the atmosphere being above freezing. Heavy rates will very easily overcome that.
That being said this event is go big or go home. If we don't get a bombing low pressure then our rates will likely stay very light. If this wave does have some punch to it, say a 1003-1000 MB low that could push some much higher precip rates across areas.
But we know how rate driven events normally go.... But the rates only have to cool 2000 feet of air... so totally possible.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 11, 2017 16:27:12 GMT -5
End of the week could be interesting, if that trough is any slower/sharper then NC may get some light snow and the cold air supply is much better....it wouldnt be a big event though in the past several of these kind of setups have given us 4-6" especially east if I95 depending on where that surface low forms and tracks, though 1-3" is more likely...
Last Edit: Dec 11, 2017 16:27:48 GMT -5 by downeastnc