Post by snowlover91 on Dec 21, 2017 17:21:47 GMT -5
First wave is only 144 hours out on the cmc and looks like it would bring some light snow changing to sleet and freezing rain. Drops over 1” of zr in many areas... not good.
Bah... It's winter weather. Work out the details the day or so before. Just make sure the four wheeler is ready to play and the Tundra 4X4 has plenty of gas.
Ain't gonna happen on the first wave. We very rarely see any significant overrunning events here. The changeover happen too quickly so we get a burst of snow then a quick changeover to a burst of sleet and before you know it it's raining.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 22, 2017 10:20:02 GMT -5
It will be tough for us Eastern NC folks. If we lived in the cad region I’d feel a lot better about chances for ice or snow. Having said that, the signals are pretty strong for a major winter storm and the details won’t become clear until we get within range of the NAM. Other models won’t handle the CAD well at all.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 22, 2017 12:57:17 GMT -5
nah eastern NC does well in these setups as almost always the more suppressed runs tend to be right ( when there is big ridged in strong HP over NE/eastern Canada ) like the 12Z GFS, it was good for a 4-6" event next weekend but lost the 14 day storm but I dont really care about that range we need to 7 day storm to firm up and I think it will over the next few days....a 1040ish HP ridged in over NE will keep the cold air coming and the track will be further offshore similar to the latest GFS.....I doubt we see a changeover as the low track is far enough offshore....might mix some pingers in from time to time but thats ok in 2000 we did that and still came out with over of a foot. CMC had a similar look but was warmer, though thats not likely given the high location and strength on the CMC. If there is a 1040ish high just north of Vermont that sticks around like the GFS and CMC have it will be plenty cold.
Last Edit: Dec 22, 2017 12:58:06 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Dec 23, 2017 10:09:00 GMT -5
06Z GFS had the 7 day storm with ice/snow for us and then nails us again the following Wed with a much better hit IMO.....typically though one of those wont pan out since two decent winter weather events within 7 days of each other are pretty friggen rare around here.
Looking quite active for the next few weeks. Will be reporting from the Charlotte area. With some time off, will spend more time here. Miss you guys!
Good to see you around again! Been a long time and was wondering if all was well, thanks for dropping by! You may want to think about plans for power outages because the models are pretty icy for you.
Looking quite active for the next few weeks. Will be reporting from the Charlotte area. With some time off, will spend more time here. Miss you guys!
Good to see you around again! Been a long time and was wondering if all was well, thanks for dropping by! You may want to think about plans for power outages because the models are pretty icy for you.
Gfs is way suppressed on 12z. Low goes due east off Florida. We don't get hardly anything with the first wave and nothing with the bigger 2nd wave.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 23, 2017 14:07:03 GMT -5
Well suppressed in this range is usually a good thing.....the overall setup and pattern is pretty textbook for a big NC snowstorm event and its completely possible we get the overrunning onset event followed by 2 really cold days then a much bigger storm on top of either surviving snow cover or frozen ground followed by another 3-5 days of brutal cold....if that pans out I will be cool with spring in Feb....
Well suppressed in this range is usually a good thing.....the overall setup and pattern is pretty textbook for a big NC snowstorm event and its completely possible we get the overrunning onset event followed by 2 really cold days then a much bigger storm on top of either surviving snow cover or frozen ground followed by another 3-5 days of brutal cold....if that pans out I will be cool with spring in Feb....
Im good for it too as long as saturday is dry and we can get down to the club to get the last weekend of hunting in.