Based on my belief that all extreme weather model outputs are simply extreme I will have to dismiss the CMC out right right now for it to be that historically cold for that length of time would take a snow-packed like we haven't seen in Forever
Post by downeastnc on Dec 28, 2017 13:08:12 GMT -5
Sometime next week something will go our way, its just a matter of timing, the GFS was dry and suppressed and had literally no precip for 16 days over us with only 2 days with highs in the 40's during that entire span the rest of that time its 30's or lower....and all without a flake of snow.....
EURO EPS just threw us a massive bone. first is member 44 lol. I went through all the members and 8-12 of them are actually decent hits for Eastern NC. It seems like the EPS has trended toward a phasing event!
The composite plot below is fairly impressive...
Temps are still marginal but these members do indeed support snow/ice for most of the event
This right here is why i'll wait for 3 more days to write off the next potential storm. It doesn't look good but here the euro eps showed us getting hit good and even had some big dogs and we got squat. I'll never like being in the bulls eye a week out and if nothing changes then we haven't lost anything because we aren't expecting anything.
My bet is we see baby steps and will eventually see a similar system to the one we just had. Barely enough moisture to give us some token flakes.
We had a nice little dusting of snow and sleet on the beach last night. Started with sleet at about 6 pm and changed over to all snow. Very fine small flakes as the humidity was low, but enough to put a dusting on cars and porches. Was all but over by about 830. A few brief periods of moderate rates but mostly low rates. 20 degrees on the beach at 7am btw.
Dang pipes are trying to freeze up on me. I'm drip-drip-dripping everywhere, but even so the hot water tap in the kitchen still almost got away from me.
I have also been getting up at night and running the water full blast for a minute or so
All of my dripping and running wasn't enough. Yesterday morning my hot water line froze up, even though I had two hot water faucets dripping. So I placed an electric space heater under the house near where I thought the problem was. Plus, of course, the air temperature sneaked above freezing for a while yesterday. So it finally thawed out and started running again, thank goodness.
From now on when temperatures get extremely cold, I'm not just going to drip; I'm going to trickle. If I burn up my pump, so be it. If I run my shallow well dry, that's just too bad. Lesson learned.
We need a thread for the 7th CAD event. I know it will be tough for.eastern nc. But u never know. Cold air will still be in place!
If precip makes it in before day break then it’s game on... but any delay and it’ll be a cold rain most likely. Let’s give models another day to see where they go!
We need a thread for the 7th CAD event. I know it will be tough for.eastern nc. But u never know. Cold air will still be in place!
Anywhere west of 95 that is even close to freezing at onset will see zr in my opinion. The ground is already frozen solid and will only by colder so any onset precip that falls will fall into a freezing surface. Might not last long but you never know.