Looks like a solid chance for considerable ice with this first system. CAD looks almost ideal. Underplayed as well I'm certain.
Welcome back chuck how have you been?
CADs are always hard to predict and we can sometimes be left out this far east. Good to have the euro coming in cold but still lots of time to watch this unravel before our eyes.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 24, 2017 23:31:27 GMT -5
holy.... 00z gfs has a 992mb cutting through the OBX. storm starts in 174 hrs... not way out in fantasy land by any means. plasters I-95 west. with sleet/snow. Literally has one of the coldest air masses behind it ive ever seen.
holy.... 00z gfs has a 992mb cutting through the OBX. storm starts in 174 hrs... not way out in fantasy land by any means. plasters I-95 west. with sleet/snow. Literally has one of the coldest air masses behind it ive ever seen.
Zero chance that a storm tracking that strong and that close is anything other than rainy mess for RDU east.....huge gigantic warm nose with heavy rain.......that never works out...it will be way warmer than the model shows with that low track temps will be 35-40 easy in PGV and low 30's in the Triangle.....basically.the 00Z GFS is a total waste of a storm....the CMC is nice on the first storm and blah on the second but still has more promise.
Stil lots of time and with the 2 systems close together its tough for the models to sort it out....but we really need the 18Z GFS or 12Z CMC to be on the right track....the first storm has to hang up off NE and block in the ridge to keep that second storm south otherwise this will end up another in a long line of disappointments.
Last Edit: Dec 25, 2017 0:10:11 GMT -5 by downeastnc
That super cad doesn't look so super for us east of raleigh. Chuck better be thankful he is where he is and will score the biggest out of everyone on the forum.
Models really moving away from the bigger second storm ( at least one of a frozen variety )...CMC bullish with the first wave but the second is all rain I95 and east and the GFS is just ick....high not in the best spot for us and allows the storms to get to close and the cold gets held up by the mts.....certainly not a super cad setup with the parent high way out west.....
Last Edit: Dec 25, 2017 8:57:15 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Models really moving away from the bigger second storm ( at least one of a frozen variety )...CMC bullish with the first wave but the second is all rain I95 and east and the GFS is just ick....high not in the best spot for us and allows the storms to get to close and the cold gets held up by the mts.....certainly not a super cad setup with the parent high way out west.....
First storm is looking more like a flizzard at best. Second one has tons of potential it’s far enough out for he changes we need which isn’t much
Post by downeastnc on Dec 25, 2017 12:11:41 GMT -5
12Z GFS was better but the CMC was worse lol.....either way its to early to latch on to any run yet, I would say the Wed threat is gone, the GFS keeps PGV at or below freezing pretty much an entire week....from hr 126 to 276 PGV never climbs above freezing and for 36 hrs before that it doesnt go above 36 so so this will be one of the strongest, longest cold snaps in a good long while if it pans out.