Post by NCHurricane on Oct 15, 2016 15:53:24 GMT -5
Yeah, that would not be good. Starting to remind me of 99 with Dennis, Floyd, then Irene. We've had Hermine, Julia (ex), now Matthew. Definitely don't need a fourth hit.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 15, 2016 19:54:32 GMT -5
GFS and Euro ensembles both strongly suggest there will be a threat somewhere in the Caribbean or Bahamas next week with most of them taking it over Florida into NC or just directly over NC. Definitely something to watch, tropical moisture is the last thing we need right now and even if it only drops 2-3" we don't need the extra rain right now lol. With a tropical disturbance it could end up being much more depending on the size of the system, strength and track also.
06 gfs gets closer to the coast and now the NHC is mentioning the area in the bahamas with a 20% chance to develop. the way things have gone this year i have no doubt it will dump rain over eastern NC.
06 gfs gets closer to the coast and now the NHC is mentioning the area in the bahamas with a 20% chance to develop. the way things have gone this year i have no doubt it will dump rain over eastern NC.
Up to 30% now. More rain is the last thing we need right now especially with cleanup efforts and needing things to dry out.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 16, 2016 15:18:09 GMT -5
models have trended well east today though with the system.....we need the long dry spell to hold before we go back to a stormier flow probably in early Nov...
models have trended well east today though with the system.....we need the long dry spell to hold before we go back to a stormier flow probably in early Nov...
Key will be the timing of the storm and how far west it goes before the turn. The NAM is much quicker and more west as a result. Models probably won't lock on to a solution until this actually develops. Going to be interesting to watch...
Still looks to be a pretty remote chance at this point for the low that forms to get this far west it would need to form and move west now quickly to beat the strong front due in here Friday night.....