92L is taking on some rotation but it is a strung out mess. I like that its a little further north at 15N right now as it may give it a chance to stay north of the islands but the models don't do much with it.
92L is waiting for Hermine to get out of the way so he can grab our full attention.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Models look bleak for any action and being right at the peak of season that doesn't bold well for anymore storms. Late September and October hits are rare due to increased frontal passages and all.
Models look bleak for any action and being right at the peak of season that doesn't bold well for anymore storms. Late September and October hits are rare due to increased frontal passages and all.
FWIW Larry Cosgrove sent out a tropical update just yesterday. He thinks the season will end with a late September or early October hurricane landfall on the East Coast. This will be interesting to watch and see if it does happen or not. Quite a few waves over Africa right now and then when we get into late September and early October we usually get the homegrown storms in the Bahamas, GOM or Caribbean.
BAM (Beta and Advection Model) assumes that the hurricane moves with the aviation model's winds (vertically averaged and filtered to remove the hurricane) plus a drift toward the pole and westward due to the northward increase of the Coriolis parameter (the "beta effect"). BAM comes in three versions, shallow, medium, and deep, depending upon the depth over which the vertical average is computed. BAMS/BAMM/BAMD
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 9, 2016 15:34:33 GMT -5
Maybe we can get the storm to hit North Korea instead and take out their nuclear facility lol. Seriously though that would be pretty devastating for Japan if that does happen.
On another note the CMC has been consistent with developing 93L into a tropical storm or hurricane and sitting right off the NC coast or making landfall. No other models support that at this time but it's worth keeping an eye on.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 9, 2016 15:36:30 GMT -5
CMC has 92L bombing off the SE coast and kind hanging out getting down into the 965-970 range before landfalling at ILM as a 990 storm...none of the others models do this of course...
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 12, 2016 7:43:32 GMT -5
It's amazing we had three investigations and two of them went poof while the third still hasn't developed and is heading out to sea. Theshear pattern in the Atlantic is more like El Niño than a La Niña.
Shut the tropic forum down its done. We don't see many storms landfalling after mid September because the cold fronts get further and further south ensuring recurves. Its not impossible to get one after that time frame but I can count on one hand the number of times its happened in my life time.
Not our side of the globe bit the JWTC is forecasting a storm to hit 125kts as it recurves towards japan. Models have a mid 940s at landfall.
Goes to show how far off a forecast can be. Its gonna go south of Taiwan and its at 160kts right now.
Impressive storm for sure. Nice symmetrical CDO and pressure sub 900 most likely. Wish we could have recon in a storm like this to measure the actual winds and pressure field. Hopefully it begins an EWRC before landfall otherwise it could be really bad.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 13, 2016 16:19:17 GMT -5
Tropical Storm looks to be forming right off the east coast of Florida....NHC jumped it up to 40 but is bullish in the wording...models block it out though and keep it pretty much where it is until it drifts inland over N Florida, still its a good indicator of what can happen now that fronts are clearing the coast...
NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.
1. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach, Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system is very close to having the organization required of a tropical cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon. The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida. Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this system, including possible warnings. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Post by downeastnc on Sept 13, 2016 19:05:39 GMT -5
Florida low is going to be Julia by tomorrow morning if it can get the "center" 50-75 miles off the coast.....CMC had formed a low there and brought it to NC a few days ago and most models are having a lot of trouble consolidating a low off the SE coast but all seem to try.....could be one of those Ophelia type systems that just kind hangs out off the SE coast for 4-6 days.....
