Post by downeastnc on Feb 29, 2016 19:34:19 GMT -5
Well we have already had a hurricane in Jan, the real question is how does the rest of the season go, according to me and Shaggy's research years with a lot of tornados have a much higher chance to see landing TC in the Carolinas and we are already around 12 tornados for the year in NC......
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 29, 2016 21:29:36 GMT -5
Would you guys be able to repost that data on here? It was really awesome stuff and I want to get it archived on the new board. Also here are a few pics of our January hurricane near its peak.
Would you guys be able to repost that data on here? It was really awesome stuff and I want to get it archived on the new board. Also here are a few pics of our January hurricane near its peak.
This data is a few years old now and we had another high tornado/ landfalling in 2014 with hurricane arthur.
A little more breakdown by the numbers:
Of the years where 30+ tornadoes were confirmed we have
1984 with 34 T's and Hurricane Diana 1996 with 31 T's and Bertha/Fran 1998 with 54 T's and Bonnie 2008 with 45 T's and Ernesto 2009 with 31 T's No storm
Thats 80% of those years with a subsequent landfall. The only year that didn't 2009 was a down year for the tropics with a well below avg of just 8 named storms.
Next group of numbers is 20-30 Tornadoes and that was one year only
1989 with 24 T's Hurricane Hugo
Next group 14-20 tornadoes
1991 with 17 T's No landfall(close call with bob) 1999 with 14 T's Dennis/Floyd 2000 with 19 T's No storm 2003 with 17 T's Isabel 2004 with 19 T's Charley 2006 with 18 T's Hanna
So thats 4 out of 6 years with landfalling storms.
GFS and Euro hinting at a possible "tropical" type low towards the beginning of June affecting the SE.....
Yeah mentioned this in the obs thread just for fun but it does seem to be a legit possibility. If we get our second named storm by the first week of June that would be a fast start to the season for sure.
Post by snowlover91 on May 22, 2016 23:06:32 GMT -5
Keep an eye on that system the end of May into early June. GFS is insistent on developing it into a decently strong low pressure, now down to 1001mb at landfall near mhx. Still way out there but something to keep an eye on. Could be subtropical or a weak tropical storm if it has good conditions.
Post by downeastnc on May 23, 2016 16:22:00 GMT -5
Euro and GFS still have a tropical/subtropical low coming in over the Carolinas late this weekend into next week, its a weak system but still might be a named storm, really dont need the rain maybe it wont pan out.
Post by snowlover91 on May 24, 2016 15:49:09 GMT -5
Might be time to start a thread since the NHC has it labeled with a 30% chance of development and all models seem on board with at least weak development. The Euro actually shows the first storm as a weak TD or TS then a second stronger TS forming behind it also. Both systems impact the Carolinas.
Might be time to start a thread since the NHC has it labeled with a 30% chance of development and all models seem on board with at least weak development. The Euro actually shows the first storm as a weak TD or TS then a second stronger TS forming behind it also. Both systems impact the Carolinas.
Man. My back yard is already a dense cloud of mosquitoes.
Post by snowlover91 on Jun 11, 2016 2:33:58 GMT -5
Yep Euro shows a weak warm core low at 1008mb off the SE coast at hour 240. Something to watch for sure. It's hard to believe we already have 3 named storms and could be looking at a 4th by mid-June.
Post by downeastnc on Jun 20, 2016 16:30:12 GMT -5
GFS has a storm following a very similar path to Colin although it forms deeper down and should be stronger, brings the center just inland up the SE coast and has it sitting on Pitt CO on July 4th ( yuck)
GFS has a storm following a very similar path to Colin although it forms deeper down and should be stronger, brings the center just inland up the SE coast and has it sitting on Pitt CO on July 4th ( yuck)
14 days from now.
I'm not canceling the backyard barbecue quite yet.