and this is what the last frame has.....new run now will most likely be completely different, still several lows showing up now right when you expect them....
Last Edit: Aug 15, 2016 10:36:47 GMT -5 by downeastnc
and this is what the last frame has.....new run now will most likely be completely different, still several lows showing up now right when you expect them....
New run has a totally different look all around. Instead of a high perfectly placed pushing a hurricane towards the SE you have a trough anchored off the east coast with a low between here and Bermuda.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 15, 2016 13:23:44 GMT -5
Of course, honestly the long wave pattern looks to be changing as we get towards the end of the month, so the breakdown of the Bermuda high and "fronts" beginning to clear the coast again look to take over, this sets up the normal front turning the storms OTS scenario so popular around here in Sept...the upside is starting around Aug 25th the GFS has highs in the mid 70's with DP's in the upper 50's to low 60's...
Of course, honestly the long wave pattern looks to be changing as we get towards the end of the month, so the breakdown of the Bermuda high and "fronts" beginning to clear the coast again look to take over, this sets up the normal front turning the storms OTS scenario so popular around here in Sept...the upside is starting around Aug 25th the GFS has highs in the mid 70's with DP's in the upper 50's to low 60's...
Problem is that's the LR GFS lol. I like the look of that August 31st storm, we are well overdue for a threat. When was the last one we had, I can't even remember?
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 18, 2016 14:43:22 GMT -5
Models have been hinting at something developing August 25-29th timeframe but differ on track and timing. GFS has been hinting off and on at this too. Definitely something to keep an eye on since we are getting close to the peak of hurricane season. Early September I believe?
The model signal for that time frame is for there to be something brewing. This afternoons runs brought it up off the SE as a decent cane but those details don't mean anything. Its the signal that we should be watching for.
The model signal for that time frame is for there to be something brewing. This afternoons runs brought it up off the SE as a decent cane but those details don't mean anything. Its the signal that we should be watching for.
Agreed. If we get the signal inside 3-5 days for a storm then we will have to watch it closely. Depending on the strength of the high it might be a long track storm too.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Aug 19, 2016 8:25:12 GMT -5
I am extremely interested in what the GFS is showing next Tues-Thurs. the tropical wave is already on its way and is being watched by the NHC. This is perfect timing with the HP being displaced by a frontal boundary about two days before the system. Just as the HP begins to rebound the storm sneaks up the "gap". Sounds like a redo of Irene. I always say that with big systems that are shown 10 days out the GFS is strangely accurate. GFS currently shows an OTS storm but with the strength of that storm it shows it will be fairly easy for it to "bulldoze" it's way a few hundred miles either direction.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 19, 2016 12:59:51 GMT -5
If the GFS keeps showing the tropical development we will need to start a thread soon. Now under 174 hours with a strong tropical storm moving through the northern islands and PR area. Also shows another weak TS to the NE of this one so end of August could really ramp up.
First run with a gulf of Mexico landfall. That's a huge west shift but that's not what matters. It's a still showing g a strong signal that 99 will develop and move I to at least a threatening position. Of course models can be and are way wrong at this point. I'd say if on Saturday we still have a strong signal or 99 is developing then we start the thread.
TWC just showed dozens and dozens of model solutions likely the ensembles. Farthest west was Northern Mexico. Furthest east was a couple hundred miles west of bermuda.......thats a heckuva cone! High consensus for it making cane as well. Basically any model that keeps it out of the bigger islands.