TWC just showed dozens and dozens of model solutions likely the ensembles. Farthest west was Northern Mexico. Furthest east was a couple hundred miles west of bermuda.......thats a heckuva cone! High consensus for it making cane as well. Basically any model that keeps it out of the bigger islands.
Here are the ensembles from wunderground.com, like you mentioned a wide range of possibilities at this point in regards to track. TS Fiona will also probably play a role too depending on how much the ridge breaks down as she moves OTS.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Aug 19, 2016 19:10:19 GMT -5
Can someone check ocean temps? I'm in NYC for the weekend with little data lol. With as hot as it has been even a few degrees above average could fuel a monster. If the GFS is right and we have a well defined tropical system moving into extremely warm waters over the Bahamas.... we could be talking cat 3+
Is it just me or is 99l not the storm that ends up threatening us? Timing seems off since its only 3 days away from the islands and maybe 7 days from us. Wondering if the new area just coming off the coast is the one to watch. It has stronger wording on it in the TWO.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 21, 2016 0:55:35 GMT -5
Tropics heating up quickly. We have Fiona, 99L which could develop down the road in the Bahamas and then 90L which looks likely to develop within a day or two. Models show an active Atlantic too so things are finally picking up.
a little flare up near the center of 99L tonight in dmax. Models are sort of all over the place with it. GFS doesn't do much but the CMC has it off our coast at the end of the run. The WPC mentions something to track in the SW atlantic in their long range disco and they also say they like a euro/cmc blend for that time frame.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 21, 2016 7:18:20 GMT -5
If 99L stalls in the Bahamas for a day or two like the GFS and CMC indicate it could easily develop quickly. We have seen many storms over the years that stall in or around that area and quickly blow up when conditions are favorable. Where it goes after that, if it does develop, will likely depend on the timing of the short waves and any weakness in the ringing. Fiona and 90L will also play a major role too, plenty of variables to make this a difficult system to predict.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 21, 2016 13:36:57 GMT -5
CMC keeps coming back to a SE landfall into the Carolinas, it varies on how it evolves some but still it and the GFS hints at it too but takes it well offshore...actually has it moving almost due east away from Miami....which is a bot of a oddball track this time of yeah.....
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 21, 2016 14:11:00 GMT -5
I say if models still indicate a developing system in the Bahamas by this time tomorrow that someone needs to start a thread. My weather luck is pretty bad so we need a volunteer...
Euro has come around finally with a developing system in the Bahama region. The CMC and GFS indicate this also and the NAVGEM has jumped on board as well. The key will be where it goes from there? Climo favors either a CMC type track up along the coast into NC or a Euro track that goes west across FL into the Gulf under building HP.
I say if models still indicate a developing system in the Bahamas by this time tomorrow that someone needs to start a thread. My weather luck is pretty bad so we need a volunteer...
Euro has come around finally with a developing system in the Bahama region. The CMC and GFS indicate this also and the NAVGEM has jumped on board as well. The key will be where it goes from there? Climo favors either a CMC type track up along the coast into NC or a Euro track that goes west across FL into the Gulf under building HP.
Seems the models have three trains of thought. One is the high anchors over the SE shoves the system west per the euro. The other is a shifting high with the storm slamming into the east coast per the cmc and the last is the GFS which pulls an about face and races the storm east away from the coast ala Joaquin from last season.
99L looks like crap right now so it might not even matter.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 21, 2016 21:55:08 GMT -5
The GFS in the 18z run took a shift towards the CMC solution with the system developing around the Bahamas and drifting north. The GFS keeps it offshore but much further west and near the OBX. I don't think 99L will do much until it gets in the Bahamas, the dry air and land interaction around PR will cause problems for it. It has such a large circulation that it will take awhile to get going. However the heat potential over the Bahamas is extremely high and we've seen many storms undergo RI in this area. The fact that the Euro is finally developing this system gives me greater confidence that we will see something from it.
The GFS in the 18z run took a shift towards the CMC solution with the system developing around the Bahamas and drifting north. The GFS keeps it offshore but much further west and near the OBX. I don't think 99L will do much until it gets in the Bahamas, the dry air and land interaction around PR will cause problems for it. It has such a large circulation that it will take awhile to get going. However the heat potential over the Bahamas is extremely high and we've seen many storms undergo RI in this area. The fact that the Euro is finally developing this system gives me greater confidence that we will see something from it.
The models are starting to feel useless to me right now. The 0z suite so far is very chaotic. GFS basically loses 99L and does nothing with it this run. The cmc strengthens Fiona back to a solid cane moving due west towards the lower mid atlantic while 99L forms a moderate storm over the Bahamas. Fiona then screeches to a halt turns around and absorbs 99L. Just chaos right now for a invest that's looking like trash right now. Waiting on the euro to show something totally different from its 12z run any minute now.