Euro's last frame shows a due east motion away from the east coast very similar to the previous GFS run. At this point the models are everywhere so I'd wait at least 2 more days to see if it even makes it to better conditions to even have a chance at development.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 28, 2016 14:40:11 GMT -5
Long range the Euro and GFS agree on a long track tropical storm or hurricane skirting north of PR and into the Bahamas with a Bermuda HP placed perfectly for an East Coast hit. Still a long ways out and a lot will change but something to watch out for. September 7-13th is the timeframe.
Another long range fantasy storm to track on the gfs.
I wouldn't call it a fantasy storm. It's exiting Africa right now as a very vigorous wave. NHC has probs for development at 50% already and most models are developing this within the next 72 hours. The intensity guidance has most developing it into a TS within 48 hours. Chances for development are pretty high and with such a strong ridge in place we need to watch this one closely. September 7-11th is the time when it would impact us if it makes it without recurving.
Another long range fantasy storm to track on the gfs.
I wouldn't call it a fantasy storm. It's exiting Africa right now as a very vigorous wave. NHC has probs for development at 50% already and most models are developing this within the next 72 hours. The intensity guidance has most developing it into a TS within 48 hours. Chances for development are pretty high and with such a strong ridge in place we need to watch this one closely. September 7-11th is the time when it would impact us if it makes it without recurving.
I have no doubt the storm exiting the coast has strong potential to form. Gaston had strong potential as he left Africa and he is now well on his way to the eastern atlantic. My fantasy part of the solution is a the part where it crashes into the east coast. Certainly possible but so far out we will see around 30+ different solutions over the next 8 days or so before it gets to the islands.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 30, 2016 0:31:24 GMT -5
The difference with Gaston is it was expected to recurve even with early model runs due to a weakness in the Atlantic. With 92L there doesn't appear to be any weakness; high pressure will cover most of the Atlantic and the only area of weakness will be along the East Coast created by TD 9 in the GOM. I think eventual landfall will depend on what TD 9 does. I think it'll definitely make it past PR and approach the Bahamas. From there I see it either plowing into Florida OR curving more towards our region. I like the looks of this one.
They had a bad couplet come in right over Hatteras Island last night it was nasty and legit and I see there is damage on the island from it...a house has been destroyed and I saw pictures on Facebook of a RV park with Campers flipped over etc..
92L is taking on some rotation but it is a strung out mess. I like that its a little further north at 15N right now as it may give it a chance to stay north of the islands but the models don't do much with it.