Apparently the little islands south of Taiwan reported a sustained wind of 122 gusts close to 160. That's incredible. Even the southern tip of Taiwan saw winds of 112 and they were a good bit north of the eye
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 14, 2016 21:36:03 GMT -5
Good call, Ron, on the development of TS Julia! I have to say the CMC seemed to have the best handle on this system.
Steve, have you seen or heard of any damage reports from the area? The way it looked and the strength it had I would imagine damage would be widespread.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 15, 2016 8:46:02 GMT -5
TD 12 is mildly interesting on the Euro run last night, its not a immediate fish anyways and might be a threat to at least the islands down the road perhaps.
Euro is all alone but that's a couple runs in a row bringing a storm into the picture. This run its 940mb so it could be a beast. Doesn't mean it will threaten land but something to watch the next couple of days.
Good call, Ron, on the development of TS Julia! I have to say the CMC seemed to have the best handle on this system.
Steve, have you seen or heard of any damage reports from the area? The way it looked and the strength it had I would imagine damage would be widespread.
Euro is all alone but that's a couple runs in a row bringing a storm into the picture. This run its 940mb so it could be a beast. Doesn't mean it will threaten land but something to watch the next couple of days.
The Euro run reminds me a lot of Fran up to the point the run ends....this doesnt mean I think it is gonna hit, I give it less than 25% chance given the time of the year but if the setup the Euro shows then there is a chance it ducks that trough if it does that then it could at least get REALLY REALLY close to the coast of NC IMO.....
Last Edit: Sept 15, 2016 15:49:33 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 15, 2016 22:33:54 GMT -5
Lol wow that video of the guy on the moped was great! I love the dedication he had to go recover his helmet after getting hit by all that debris!
Euro runs bears watching since it's been so consistent. If it's that strong the amount of ridging shown and approaching trough would keep it away from the US... however that's 240 hours out so a lot will change.
Way out but both the euro and gfs now show a recurve around bermuda. The euro has a 930ish just south of the island so they are gonna need to keep a close eye on it.
Both still recurve the storm well east of the USA, its gonna take a huge change in its projected track/strength etc to get this system to where it is a legit threat to the USA.....Bermuda however may be in big trouble down the road...Euro took a bombing Karl just south of the island going from 940 to 920 MB during that time.....probably isnt the correct solution but if it was Bermuda would be 30-50 miles north of the eye of a monster hurricane and it would be a big hit for them.
It would take a complete shake up of all modeling to get this close to the US. All 3 major models all recurve and threaten Bermuda with an organizing hurricane.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 15, 2016 13:49:41 GMT -5
Yeah this would suck and is the last thing we need....luckily the models "only" put down 3-4" of rain with it, it wont be enough to flood the rivers but if it happens quick enough the flash flooding could be a issue with the areas that are already or almost washed out etc....inside of 7 days too....Euro hints at it too...heck all the darn models have it.....crazy, CMC has min hurricane level pressure.....the rest are all mid level TS
Last Edit: Oct 15, 2016 15:03:23 GMT -5 by downeastnc