Post by snowlover91 on Dec 10, 2016 14:23:32 GMT -5
Going to wait 1-2 more cycles and if the Euro and CMC hold serve or trend colder I'll start a thread. Right now Western NC looks like the biggest winner with CAD holding strong but we could see a super CAD with such a strong HP. A dusting from Greenville to earth then 2-3" near NC/VA border. About .35-.4 falls as ice for Raleigh and higher west. Crippling ice storm verbatim and mid 20s temps.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 11, 2016 1:24:30 GMT -5
GFS is about the same or warmer maybe while CMC is significantly colder. Hmmm. Let's see what Euro says. CMC would be a catastrophic ice storm for CAD regions with 1-2" qpf falling as zr and sleet.
Meh its all rain for Pitt Co pretty much on all the models and who wants Ice.....ice storms are utterly useless, the storm tracks have also been more west like the GFS....but if it does come further east then the foothills can enjoy their week or so with no power....also looks like the Euro kinda caved to the GFS last night....I am more concerned with Xmas, will it be cold or warm.....GFS is back and forth 70 one run, cold with rain/.snow on another.....
Last Edit: Dec 11, 2016 10:07:05 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 11, 2016 14:05:22 GMT -5
Fwiw here are GFS ensembles for the start of the system. As you can see there is a wide range of timing and possibilities. Some with strong CAD, others drier and slow, some faster with rain. Also the snowfall map from GFS members. It definitely doesn't look like much if anything for Eastern NC but if I get to see some flakes or sleet for even a few minutes it'll be a win for me. Western NC still needs to worry about the possibility of a big ice storm. I don't think models have figured this out yet. Once we get inside 96 hours we should get a better idea as the storm evolves and high res models begin to pick up on the CAD and storm track. Until then I wouldn't trust any one model because they've been everywhere today.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 11, 2016 18:17:25 GMT -5
CMC and Euro both caving to the GFS more or less, maybe a brief period at onset in western NC piedmont and the foothills might get a bit before the temps rise but the flow is to strong no locked in high etc etc etc.....Xmas looking average right now but nothing stormy or snowy at this point lets just hope it isnt 60-70 that weekend....
CMC and Euro both caving to the GFS more or less, maybe a brief period at onset in western NC piedmont and the foothills might get a bit before the temps rise but the flow is to strong no locked in high etc etc etc.....Xmas looking average right now but nothing stormy or snowy at this point lets just hope it isnt 60-70 that weekend....
I'm curious as to why the parallel GFS at 12z went to a much colder and icy solution. The key here is timing and 6-12 hours quicker with that wave kicking out will make all the difference. At 144+ hours out it's not unreasonable to think this could trend quicker or slower. With such a large spread still in GFS members and the parallel disagreeing there is too much uncertainty still to know what will happen. It definitely looks like a Raleigh and points west storm. Still fun to track and see which model does the best, key for future systems.
I just can't see it being 33 Friday then 50 Saturday in Raleigh...that is a strong shot of cold air. Brutally cold to our NW. Whatever storm should get supressed because of the cold. But I don't look at models. Gave up on it. Weathere here sucks over all. Just losing my passion. I want to move so bad.
I just can't see it being 33 Friday then 50 Saturday in Raleigh...that is a strong shot of cold air. Brutally cold to our NW. Whatever storm should get supressed because of the cold. But I don't look at models. Gave up on it. Weathere here sucks over all. Just losing my passion. I want to move so bad.
Yeah it's interesting because models have been trending south with the main low pressure track. I took at look at the GFS and just two days ago it had it well up into Canada whereas the same time now it's in Indiana. The HP to it's NW seems to be pressing down on it more and the vort seems weaker thus slower to cut. Jeff you need to post more on here how's the baby btw?
Greetings, I am relatively new here . I am from Hendersonville and work in Greer SC. I just moved back to Carolina in Match after living in Nashville for 15 years . I was pretty active in the weather community there as a storm spotter . Most of my interest was in Severe Weather but am slowly but surely learning more about Winter WX.
So this system is my first one to watch since moving back . I have not really looked at any models yet but I will be watching the GFS and EURO to see where the freeze line will land.
Greetings, I am relatively new here . I am from Hendersonville and work in Greer SC. I just moved back to Carolina in Match after living in Nashville for 15 years . I was pretty active in the weather community there as a storm spotter . Most of my interest was in Severe Weather but am slowly but surely learning more about Winter WX.
So this system is my first one to watch since moving back . I have not really looked at any models yet but I will be watching the GFS and EURO to see where the freeze line will land.
Any thoughts?
Welcome aboard! You live in Hendersonville now? If so you will probably be seeing some ice over the next few days! Right now the consensus for Saturday morning is light icing, .1-.2 as freezing rain. With temps so cold the night before and temps likely in the mid to upper 20s it will stick to everything and roads will be dangerous in the early morning especially western and central NC. Interestingly enough there could also be severe weather Sunday afternoon as the cold front approaches.
Welcome to the board! Hope this pattern leads to something for christmas. Problem is the cold air moves in and slides out just as fast
Snowlover...and chance we can get some blocking and hold this stuff in? Or will the roller coaster continue?
What about Monday to Tuesday time frame?
Baby is good...she is taking ornaments off the tree as I type!
Jeff, historically La Niña winters usually start with a transient but BN December and then depending on the strength either go to a strong trough out west or in weaker ones a ridge out west with a trough in the east. With the La Niña dying out and now in a neutral phase I expect early January we should see a blocky pattern appear with ridging out west. If it does watch out... also signs of the PV splitting by early to mid January.
I think the Saturday system sees .1-.2 of ice from rdu and points west. For Monday-Tuesday I could see a solid ice storm for somewhere in northern NC from rdu and north/west. If the CAD is stronger than modeled then the whole state west of I-95 could see ice.
Last Edit: Dec 13, 2016 19:22:26 GMT -5 by snowlover91
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 14, 2016 22:25:45 GMT -5
Looks like a solid .10-.15 of zr for areas from RDU and west. For Greenville and surrounding areas maybe some light ice but the moisture will be too late and the warm air too strong.
Meh RAH not impressed....doubt anyone gets .10" of ice anywhere outside of a few places in the foothills and even that looks iffy.....
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 AM Thursday...
A roller-coaster of cold to warm this period.
Only a fleeting chance of a little very light freezing rain early Saturday morning.
Modified arctic air will be in place over the region Friday courtesy of the the strong parent surface high over region to start the day. The high is forecast to be progressive and quickly move offshore Friday afternoon and night. This occurs as the main storm track is forecast well to our west and north (from the central Plains states to the Ohio Valley region).
Any freezing precipitation potential will be fleeting and confined to a small window of time late Friday night and early Saturday morning due to 1) progressive parent high to move offshore before precipitation begins, 2) Light QFP / precipitation during the event (questionable if there will be enough to lead to significant CAD (hybrid) event, 3) very strong WAA just above the surface and aloft with overwhelming warming a top the cold dome to limit any icing to onset (if then) by self limiting processes. H85 SW flow to 50kt will overrun the retreating cold air Saturday with a warm front expected to penetrate the region from the south Saturday afternoon and night.
Most likely forecast will be for Increasing cloudiness and cold Friday with light and variable wind. Highs only 30 NW to 40 SE. Overcast with patchy very light rain late Friday night. Patchy light rain and freezing rain in the Piedmont late. Temperatures holding around 30 NW with 35-40 SE Friday night.
Patchy light freezing rain/rain in the Piedmont early Saturday, then areas of mist/fog. Highs near 40 NW to near 50 SE, temperatures rising into the 40s NW and 60 SE overnight. QPF mostly likely forecast is around 0.10 Fri night through Saturday.
Post by downeastnc on Dec 16, 2016 12:22:21 GMT -5
Next Monday/Tues could get interesting temps 32-35 with precip and a low popping offshore the GFS is to far east and minimal precip the Euro however is 35 and almost 1" of rain, so its very close to a decent snowstorm...either way a cold rain looks like a lock lol.