Next Monday/Tues could get interesting temps 32-35 with precip and a low popping offshore the GFS is to far east and minimal precip the Euro however is 35 and almost 1" of rain, so its very close to a decent snowstorm...either way a cold rain looks like a lock lol.
We are getting in range of NAM so we need to watch that wave closely. If the Euro is right with precip and we have a 1040+ HP over the NE I don't see how we stay above freezing with a continuous supply of cold air.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 16, 2016 20:59:29 GMT -5
The event next Monday/Tuesday will be rain. typical cold chasing moisture.
looks like we make a run for at LEAST 70 sunday. THen looks seasonal into Christmas but Between Christmas and news years models picking up on a MAJOR warm up. 70s for 2-3 days possibly.
Transient pattern will be the death of us this December and I don't see a lot of signs that it will be better in January.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 16, 2016 21:11:50 GMT -5
Pattern will be transient rest of December which is expected with a lack of blocking. Historically La Nina's seem to have that for December most of the time, cool and transient with normal to slightly BN temps. January and February will be a much better pattern for snow and ice. I expect blocking to really set up around the same time as last year, January 7-12th.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 17, 2016 1:03:43 GMT -5
Jeff you sure your temps are above freezing? You in Fuquay or Wilson? The Raleigh area is 28-30 right now with freezing drizzle and light zr. Also saw a few reports of snow flurries in NW Raleigh when it all started!
Fuquay...no longer in wilson. I got down to 32.0...precipitation was so light everything just froze on elevated surfaces...I assume if frost can form at 36 degees...light rain or drizzle can too...especially when Temps had been so cold before it started...also negative zero dewpoints. But could be wrong.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 17, 2016 12:35:49 GMT -5
Jeff, I think your thermometer may be off a few degrees. Regional obs showed the fuquay area bottoming out in the 27-29F range. Frost doesn't technically form above freezing. While the air temperature may be above that the temperature near the ground and other surfaces is usually colder, at or below the freezing mark. It's due to a surface temperature inversion and the weather station will hold in more "heat" than the surfaces the frost forms on. Here is a great article about it. www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/whys/frost.htm
I know. I was just thinking with very low depoints...cold air in place...if it was 33 degrees or so...mist or drizzle would freeze on elevated surfaces too. If the precipitation had been heavier..it might would have dragged the warmer air down...and the rain would have washed off. But maybe my thermometer is off like u said. Makes more.sense.
I know. I was just thinking with very low depoints...cold air in place...if it was 33 degrees or so...mist or drizzle would freeze on elevated surfaces too. If the precipitation had been heavier..it might would have dragged the warmer air down...and the rain would have washed off. But maybe my thermometer is off like u said. Makes more.sense.
Yeah the light precip was actually key to keeping the temps down. If it was heavier it would have brought down warmer air like you mentioned and warmer things up quickly. The wedge held quite well considering how warm things were aloft and lack of a cold air supply too.
Well .... I moved again. Not a great distance (SE Greenville to NW Greenville) but a move is a move is a move and I sure as heck don't like going through it (does anyone?) This is now my 4th residence in North Carolina and 3rd move in just 3 years. UGH!
My original plan was to hire a small family business, a big truck and two men to haul my stuff. I checked in around 8am and was told they would show up in about two hours. They never showed. I called repeatedly during the day but got only voice mail. I was furious.
Next day, stage two ... the cold weather arrives ... I arranged for a friend of a friend with a large pickup truck and he did show up. We moved a bunch of stuff in several trips, then arranged for yet another guy with a pickup truck and trailer for the next day. He showed up and we continued the move through that nasty cold windy day until the job was complete. I spent the next day unwinding from frayed nerves and physical exhaustion.
So now I'm settled in except for some unpacking and arranging things. The cold now replaced with blazing warmth allowed me some exploration on my bike and was pleased to find a decent amount of useful business in the area (best of all is to have a grocery store half the distance away from my old place).
Moving complaints notwithstanding, I'm happy at last to be here (I applied a few months ago). Owned by the state, this is a community for lower income (with tiered subsidies), age 55+ (I'm 65). The building is brand new, opening only this summer; and the apartments are insanely spacious.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken