I see both the point-and-click forecast and the zone forecast package, each of them hot off the press, mention a chance of freezing rain in Greenville tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night ... but rain only in Wilson. Coordination issue between offices?
Here's what the WPC is showing through Tuesday morning. Weird setup.
Yeah very strange setup. The cold really never made it far enough south to change most areas to sleet or freezing rain. The SER held stronger than the NAM indicated, just enough to keep areas above freezing. If we get this setup in January it might have been a little different.
Looks like Christmas will be closer to seasonal temps, no 75-80 degrees with thunderstorms like years past. Hopefully by early January we get some solid blocking to setup and produce a good snow event.
I've always found extreme temperatures changes pretty awesome. From the Chinook winds to heat burst to just a strong cold frontal passage.
We had one pass maybe 10 year ago that within a matter of 5 to 10 minutes we watched the temp drop 15 degrees.
Same here. I've always wanted to experience the heat burst caused sometimes from a dying thunderstorm. I remember reading about some of those having 90-100mph winds and the temps actually rose 10-20 degrees. One I remember reading about in Kansas caused the temp to go from 72 to 92 in a matter of minutes along with hurricane force winds. Pretty crazy stuff.
Interesting few lines in this afternoon's AFD out of Raleigh: THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BE STALLING ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND LOOKS TO BEGIN RELOADING THE WHOLE PROCESS, WITH IN-SITU DAMMING AND OVERRUNNING SETTING UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. STAY TUNED, AS COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BE SHUNTED SOUTH TO ADD YET ANOTHER VARIABLE/CONSIDERATION TO THE FORECAST EQUATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
Interesting few lines in this afternoon's AFD out of Raleigh: THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BE STALLING ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND LOOKS TO BEGIN RELOADING THE WHOLE PROCESS, WITH IN-SITU DAMMING AND OVERRUNNING SETTING UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. STAY TUNED, AS COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BE SHUNTED SOUTH TO ADD YET ANOTHER VARIABLE/CONSIDERATION TO THE FORECAST EQUATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
Yeah the weekend is quite interesting. The GFS has quite a few members that have been hinting at a big snow/ice storm and the Euro members have also. The OP counterparts have been everywhere and it really depends, as always, on the timing of the pieces of energy and how quickly they kick out. A faster evolution won't allow the cold to build in and a cold rain. A slower solution would be preferred and would give time for the HP to build in for either CAD or a nice snow.
A few of yesterdays GFS ensembles had some big totals over eastern and some over western parts of the state. This mornings run is better for us as we are really the only ones getting in on the winter weather but the system is much weaker and sheared out.
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 30, 2016 10:40:00 GMT -5
The Euro and GFS Ensembles trended away from a significant ice/snow threat overnight. I don't have high hopes for this one since the cold air is going to have a hard time making it over the mountains and trying to battle the Southeast Ridge. If precip is light that will also prevent evaporative cooling from being as effective too.
RDU, still whispering sweet little nothings in our ear: RAIN WILL BREAK OUT LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 THAT COULD SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
RDU, still whispering sweet little nothings in our ear: RAIN WILL BREAK OUT LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 THAT COULD SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
GFS says happy new year with this storm. I would pay good money to see this actually verify. Too bad it doesn't work that way lol.
Now Raleigh sounds like they are losing heart. I gather suppression is the word of the day, but that's not necessarily a bad thing at this range. Have I got the state of things right?