Post by downeastnc on Sept 17, 2016 16:58:59 GMT -5
Need this for fall/winter.....models starting to show a significant cool down with legit fall weather starting later this week and building in with below normal temps by the end of Sept into early Oct.....bring it on.....
Just throwing this out there... This day in September 1999 was the day after Floyd and everyone realized the rivers were abt to put East NC underwater
Yeah we didnt lose power until what would have been tonight it was right at dark when it went.....I think we didnt have it at my apartment for 5 days or so....and we couldnt drink the water for 3 months......my father in law had a generator and would come by in the afternoon and we would crank it up and put as many fridges on it as we could to try and keep everything cold, the neighbors we all friends of ours so it was truly a community effort ....on the 5th day the opened a Food Lion up cause folks were running low on stuff and they were escorting small groups in with flashlights to get stuff, I remember walking in and smelling all the meats and veggies and frozen stuff that had been in 90 degree heat for a week with no power and well lets just say I wasnt hungry anymore. Ended up getting a bunch of Chunky soup....to cook in pots on the grill.....then the next day power came back on lol. I will say that the stars were impressive at night it was DARK I mean DARK outside with no light pollution at all.
Last Edit: Sept 17, 2016 21:51:30 GMT -5 by downeastnc
I just know this winter is going to be a cold one ... I just know it, know it, know it. But hey, maybe it'll snow?
Probably cold and dry knowing our luck lol! The good news is it looks like the summer heat is over for this year with mid to upper 70s the next 7-10 days. Models continue to hint at an early to mid October big Caribbean storm... this needs to be watched closely.
Well understandably most attention has been focused on Matthew and the flooding etc....but how about this COC weather huh....
MHX going with 43 tonight....the ASOS at PGV is down since its probably under water lol, if that 7 mph wind lays all the way up we might squeeze another 3-4 degrees out of it maybe hit 30's that be something huh.
TonightMostly clear, with a low around 43. North wind around 7 mph.
12Z GFS had a high in the mid 40's for all of NC Nov 2/3, 18Z running now
It'll probably show 80s next run Right now the pattern seems quite transient and I expect October and possibly November to be above average. Preston and I are working on our winter forecast and will put it out first week of November.
Noaa says drier and slightly warmer for their winter outlook
Yeah they're going with a typical La Niña pattern. Honestly what I'm seeing doesn't look good for winter either. Preston and I have been working on our preliminary winter outlook and most of the info points to a warmer than normal winter and drier than usual.
The only things which could change that is the weaker PV, if the La Niña goes to neutral or a slight Nino and/or the AO/NAO staying negative. None of these have a good probability of helping out with the other signs pointing to warmth.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 28, 2016 12:10:04 GMT -5
What I'm seeing so far is we will cool down by mid-November and may see a cold December. Then from there the top analogs I'm seeing in my research are 1973-74, 1998-99 and 2005-2006 which all had AN temps from January onward.
Also with our PDO weakening and heading for neutral or even negative territory that will promote a tough west vs ridging east. I just don't see much to indicate a cold winter here. The Siberian snow cover hasn't been useful in recent years and the indices like NAO and AO seem to be negative in the fall then go positive all winter long.
Post by downeastnc on Oct 29, 2016 11:57:33 GMT -5
Models seem to indicate a cold shot is coming in 7-10 days, but the overall look is probably still transient for the most part....Allan Huffmans outlook makes a lot of sense and seems to be pretty well hashed out....
Models seem to indicate a cold shot is coming in 7-10 days, but the overall look is probably still transient for the most part....Allan Huffmans outlook makes a lot of sense and seems to be pretty well hashed out....
Yeah his write up is pretty thorough. It seems like if the PDO is weak and/or the Niña is more weak or moderate vs neutral then we will see more warmth. It does look like mid-November through December will be BN the question is when does the warm flip occur.