Models seem to indicate a cold shot is coming in 7-10 days, but the overall look is probably still transient for the most part....Allan Huffmans outlook makes a lot of sense and seems to be pretty well hashed out....
Yeah his write up is pretty thorough. It seems like if the PDO is weak and/or the NiƱa is more weak or moderate vs neutral then we will see more warmth. It does look like mid-November through December will be BN the question is when does the warm flip occur.
As I age I'm really hoping for cooler November and Decembers for hunting season and then on Jan 2nd it can flip to a torch for all I care.
I am going with a cold winter due to lots of snow already in siberia. I am not a meterologist...but I did stay at a holiday Inn express last night!
lol I hope you're right! Good to see you on here again where you been at Jeff? How did you do during Matthew? Preston and I will be releasing our winter forecast in a few days but it doesn't look good for cold/snow unfortunately.
I have been on the board a lot. Just not posted. We faired fine. Lost power for 3 days...lots off massive oaks down all around my neighborhood. So we were stranded at my parents house for a while because we could not get back to our house because of the trees. It was a very fun storm.
Post by downeastnc on Nov 26, 2016 10:52:15 GMT -5
The long range still has the yucky -PNA and SE ridge, until that raging NPAC jet moves/weakens we will keep the -PNA and any cool snaps will be short lived all the cold is going down over the inter mountain west and central/north plains......
Post by snowlover91 on Nov 26, 2016 13:04:50 GMT -5
I'm interested in the system around December 5-6th. You have a decent HP sliding east and some weak overrunning precip into the cooler air. Temps would support rain outside of the mountains but they're not far from a wintry mix. Still way out there so a lot will change but something to keep an eye on.
Post by downeastnc on Nov 30, 2016 20:50:42 GMT -5
Long range keeps going back to the dreaded -PNA until that stops we will not get sustainable cold or good storm tracks.....luckily its long range and can change but so far a locked in +PNA type pattern with extended cold is not in the cards, the folks in the Midwest and GL love it though I am sure.....
edit the 06Z run looked more like it lol of course it will change again bu this is the look we need....
Last Edit: Dec 1, 2016 6:58:03 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by snowlover91 on Dec 1, 2016 23:06:17 GMT -5
Lol Ron those two images illustrate how unstable the GFS is. Models seem to be flipping back and forth a lot with the pattern. When a change is coming usually ensembles are good at picking it up especially inside 10 days. The GFS and Euro ensembles both indicate normal to below normal basically through the end of the run. Possibly a day or two of brief warmup but overall a much cooler look to the pattern. Canada looks like it will really start building some snow cover with all these cutters and arctic air building now.
Its going to get cold, the question is can we get some blocking to lock it in, storm tracks on the GFS are encouraging if we can get the cold then by late Dec into Jan we should see some legit snow chances....
Its going to get cold, the question is can we get some blocking to lock it in, storm tracks on the GFS are encouraging if we can get the cold then by late Dec into Jan we should see some legit snow chances....
GFS and Canadian hinting at the 12-13th as a possible chance. Still way out but worth keeping an eye on. Euro also hinting at it.
On the 06Z GFS from 00Z Fri 9th to the end of the run on the Dec 19th the highest temp shown is 44 the last frame has temps in the low teens/single digits over NC....that run has several chances at snow as well.....but they are fairly light really the run is dominated by strong NW flow over the eastern US.....if that locks in we should see a awesome 4-6 week winter period right during the peak of climo cold.....still though to early to tell but the trend on the models has been to lock in this mid Dec cold snap so it seems legit at least.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Dec 3, 2016 11:14:29 GMT -5
you have to like the look on the GFS. I'm not sure if ive seen a much more wintry look from the GFS this early in the season.. the last few seasons which are the few I have really gotten into it have all been so back sided.
GFS has some support from the CMC andEURO on some serious cold locking in by mid December. This might be very fun folks.