HWRF actually initializes at a decent intensity and slowly strengthens. Then RI in the 3-5 day period.
Looks like a big cyclone, too. Big eye. Seems I read a couple days ago that Florence was a small cyclone, and I wondered whether the shear it has encountered would disrupt things enough to spread it out into a larger storm. Is that likely the case?
That is likely one cause. and several days of organization will mean a few eye wall replacement cycles to expand it
12Z GFS is a hoot. Slamming into the coast at a 90 degree angle as a Cat 4 ... then running right over Greenville. Ain't NO way that's going to happen.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
12Z GFS is a hoot. Slamming into the coast at a 90 degree angle as a Cat 4 ... then running right over Greenville. Ain't NO way that's going to happen.
Better hope not. It's becoming apparent the models are locking in on a big threat for NC.
Euro is a still.a west track right into sc. Gfs is lookout to greenville. Blending the 2 would be Jacksonville to east of Raleigh.
And it's still 7 days away.
Landfall is 6 days away and closing.
12z models made small shifts. Nothing insane.
Also the early 18z guidance has not trended anywhere compared to the 12z runs. models are locking in. NC is still right in the middle of the game. Itll take another day to really pin down a more accurate landfall location/
Post by downeastnc on Sept 7, 2018 18:15:40 GMT -5
Yeah every model hits the SC/NC area now and there will be a lot of little wavering but until Sunday or so I doubt a lot changes, they are doing extra balloons now so more data and once we get within 5 days the pattern will be better sampled so if there is any wholesale changes thats probably when they will happen....
That’s like a 70 mile eye. I’m not sure if we see something that big but if we do and it’s a cat 3 or 4 landfall somewhere... eesh the devastation would be catastrophic.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 7, 2018 23:49:21 GMT -5
Yeah the HWRF pressure is Cat 5ish there, the SST and setup lend to a monster being possible......with little reason to weaken before landfall, might come down to the ERC timing being the difference between a 120-125 and a 135-140 type storm.
Still time for the models to go weaker with the ridge and end up missing OTS as well....though as it stands now the storm will be a near miss one way or the other for the OBX....still not sold on how much impact we get here latest GFS has me in the western eyewall for 6 or so hrs lol....
00Z GFS ... Pitt County and Greenville again. Is this the beginning of a love affair? Since moving to North Carolina 15 years ago I've been as much a tropical cyclone attractor as a snowstorm deflector. Y'all better watch out.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken