Post by downeastnc on Sept 6, 2018 16:36:53 GMT -5
12Z CMC track wise is worst case for Pitt Co.....the Icon and Euro also have landfalls in NC with the ICON hitting MNX moving more like the CMC and the Euro just barely getting into teh sound before turning sharply NNE....the GFS is offshore and hits LI with a Cat 2/3.
No storm has ever been as strong as Florence was where Florence was and ever hit the US at least since accurate tracking has been possible.....
We need to see that wsw turn and for it to head west for a bit if we can expect a decent landfall.
I dont see it that way, there are really two realistic outcomes at this point. Either the ridge is strong like the Euro/CMC/ICON/UKMET have and it hits NC and then up along the coast or the ridge is weaker like the GFS and it misses....it reminds me of Isabel when the models locked in on her hitting 6-7 days out and never wavered that much after that due the the strength of the ridge....the thing that gets me is the track never has a storm come from that far north even isabel didnt cross 25N until 70W.....Florence is crossing 25N right now EAST of 50W lol I mean come on if this thing hits it will be crazy....
izzie track 6 days till landfall and it hardly moved 50-100 miles from that last plot....
Post by downeastnc on Sept 6, 2018 19:30:07 GMT -5
HWRF really moving SW today too, now much more in line with the Euro/Ukie/CMC/Icon track and is well SW of Bermuda heading W or WNW at the end of the run.....if it does turn OTS it would still probably be a pretty close pass....
All too early. Either the models will lock on to this "death ridge" and show a landfall or we will see them correct and have a weaker ridge like the gfs. If the gfs is right its gonna be a big win for it.
All it will take is just the slightest weakening or orientation of that ridge and thats the difference between landfall and a 100 mile miss.
We are still 5 days away from it being 3 days away and it wint be until then the final player is on the table and being sampled by GIV missions.
All too early. Either the models will lock on to this "death ridge" and show a landfall or we will see them correct and have a weaker ridge like the gfs. If the gfs is right its gonna be a big win for it.
All it will take is just the slightest weakening or orientation of that ridge and thats the difference between landfall and a 100 mile miss.
We are still 5 days away from it being 3 days away and it wint be until then the final player is on the table and being sampled by GIV missions.
The Euro does very well in this range with large scale features like ridges, there is no real catalyst to turn the storm on the Euro/CMC/Icon till very late after landfall, thats a concerning amount of agreement and its not likely to change a whole bunch unless the usually reliable Euro has the ridging all wrong which is completely possible but less likely that say the GFS being wrong.........in fact there is only one model that has a history of eroding/weakening ridges to fast.....which one was it again.....oh yeah the GFS.
The FV actually corrected a bunch to the SW this last run so we will see if its just another flip flop or if it moves SW again
If you ignore the GFS, all the models take Florence to North Carolina. Intriguing eh?
EDIT: 06Z GFS made a big shift .... devastating track up our coast into SE VA and Chesapeake Bay and points north. Oh man, every run is gonna drive me crazy.
If you ignore the GFS, all the models take Florence to North Carolina. Intriguing eh?
EDIT: 06Z GFS made a big shift .... devastating track up our coast into SE VA and Chesapeake Bay and points north. Oh man, every run is gonna drive me crazy.
Now you don't have to ignore the gfs since it was right up the obx to the Chesapeake. Intriguing indeed!
Post by Fountainguy97 on Sept 7, 2018 8:49:16 GMT -5
Only 6 days out and we have a tight model consensus
Now we monitor her strength.
Weakening or steady strength (1000-1010mb)for the next 2-3 days would open the door for a track even further South than NC. steady and slow organization (1000mb and slowly falling below) for the next 1-3 days would mean that models are on the right track (especially euro) Rapid intensification (980-960mb) over the next 2-3 days would likely produce a recurve similar to GFS a few runs ago.
HWRF actually initializes at a decent intensity and slowly strengthens. Then RI in the 3-5 day period.
Looks like a big cyclone, too. Big eye. Seems I read a couple days ago that Florence was a small cyclone, and I wondered whether the shear it has encountered would disrupt things enough to spread it out into a larger storm. Is that likely the case?