00Z GFS also way west with Florence compared to yesterday.....about the same as the 18Z she is making a nice run at NC before getting tugged north....if she was a few hundred miles further south or slower then we would have a problem. The CMC and GFS are actually very close to each other this run....will be interesting to see if the Euro comes back west.....
Last Edit: Sept 5, 2018 0:10:52 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Still showing near misses ift the coast now and the euro would be devastating to the delmarva. Still early but to have a storm that far north hit us is very rare. Isabel was one and the track felix 1995 was on are the only ones I can remember.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 5, 2018 15:36:57 GMT -5
Ukmet ens look more like a traditional NC threat.....its been the most consistent with the west track and I dont recall it ever getting on the way east recurve train...the storm is riding the north side of guidance though and it will take a strong W to WSW turn for 2-3 days to make it a player but its possible if that turn happens in the next couple of days...
These runs just aren't doing it for me. I would need it to hit south of us for me to ever feel like we would get anything substantial. MOST storms that skirt the coast are never good west of highway 17. Irene was the exception that gave us strong winds. Even an isabelle track wouldn't excite me. We were in the eyewall on the southwest side and gusted to 50mph.
These runs just aren't doing it for me. I would need it to hit south of us for me to ever feel like we would get anything substantial. MOST storms that skirt the coast are never good west of highway 17. Irene was the exception that gave us strong winds. Even an isabelle track wouldn't excite me. We were in the eyewall on the southwest side and gusted to 50mph.
Meh every storm is different Isabel hammered areas 50 miles NE of us...it just depends on where the eyewall is ramped up at....this is all moot at this point anyways since we are talking 8-9 days out and how close the center gets could be anywhere from over us to 400-600 miles east....
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 5, 2018 21:04:00 GMT -5
I don’t expect models to resolve the landfall location, if it does, for several more days. Keep in mind just yesterday and the day before the chances of this getting caught up in the trough were pretty high and now the models all show it missing that first trough. Tiny changes will dictate whether this comes west enough to make landfall or is a near miss. If it hits the Outer Banks I might chase...
I don’t expect models to resolve the landfall location, if it does, for several more days. Keep in mind just yesterday and the day before the chances of this getting caught up in the trough were pretty high and now the models all show it missing that first trough. Tiny changes will dictate whether this comes west enough to make landfall or is a near miss. If it hits the Outer Banks I might chase...
Thing is she isnt doing what the models say she should be doing. She is on the far northern edge of guidance as it is. With her strength like it is you could assume she will be more north. It's going to eventually take the models showing a long term due west or a dip to the wsw to get this under NC so when she makes the turn she clips us.
Like I said we need the ball to be on the court and it is but my confidence is especially low with this storm.
Nhc starting to slowly buy into the notion the trough misses her. We would need a hugoesque westward track for a good long time to threaten us from its last point on the 5 day plot.