Really didn't think this one was going to deserve its own thread but the models aren't so sold on a recurve now. The overnight euro swung very significantly west and now puts her in the SW Atlantic. The NHC is going to wait and see if this trend continues before making any major changes to the track. Might be something to watch after all.
The biggest change noted among the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the overall guidance envelope. The European model, in particular, swung significantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling the break in the ridge quite as much. I'd like to see this trend continue before making a significant change to the forecast, so for now the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. That said, the models appear to be trending away from a definitive recurvature scenario.
Well the 06z gfs followed the trend and jumped west several hundred miles again. Still a recurve for florence but then it does get the following wave into the s Atlantic. So it appears we will at least have something to watch over the next 2 weeks.
So going over the last couple model runs there has been a huge jump. So much so I would have to say it looks suspect. So from the 06Z Friday run 228 plot to the 06Z Saturday 204 plot run GFS has jumped west somewhere around 720 miles. From 12Z Friday to the 0Z Saturday morning Euro run it jumped 750 miles west. That's a substantial movement on the modeling but if it keeps up then she certainly looks to be further west (although not threatening) than early modeling predicted.
Very different looks at the long range with florence. Ukmet and euro keep it more south and westerly while the gfs and cmc show a recurve early.
Euro and ukmet are not to be ignored by no means. Big difference on euro is she is getting trapped and turning more westward on the last couple frames.
That's certainly close but it is a day 10 plot. Like I told downeast and snowlove. I'm just trying to get the ball on the court to even be in the game. We have to get florence southwest of bermuda and with a blocking high to her north at the angle she is approaching. It's a very rare angle and not one that favors a US hit. However if the models trend southwest even more if she remains weak then we could have something to really track.
Weaker now is better so she misses that mid Atlantic trough.
The overnight 00z ECMWF and ECMWF ENS members shifted even more to a SE US threat in 7-10 days for #Florence
Yeah cant take our eyes off her for a while. The models have shifted west and really haven't waffled back to the east too much except the gfs. Ukmet and euro blend is hard to beat sometimes so in this range I'd be betting on them at least through day 5.
Not enough models getting florence into a threatening position for us. Euro is now fast recurve as well so we will have to wait for the next two systems.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Sept 4, 2018 7:26:26 GMT -5
Seems as if the high pressure will not be enough to shove Florence our way. Watch the next 48 hrs as our ridge is now really starting to develop over Canada.
GFS shifted closer to the coast at 06z. We are not in the all clear yet, but a recurve is and has been the most likely out come for FLorence
Last Edit: Sept 4, 2018 7:26:49 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97