Euro still Hugo redux.....though it wouldn't surprise me to see some north ticks as we get into next week....the further south models all keep Florence weak for another 24-36 hrs and she is going nuts tonight and could easily be a strong hurricane again in that time.....this would lead to a further north track.....or maybe even a miss to the east. The GFS has it at 985mb in 24 hrs and the Euro has it at 1000mb and the NHC already has it at 999mb right now.....
going boom right now
Last Edit: Sept 8, 2018 1:46:18 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Flo is organizing fairly well she really did some work with that flare up overnight but is in a lull right now....still very up in the air but if you average the models it still looks like Myrtle to Hatteras is the odds on favorite to take the hit....
Flo is organizing fairly well she really did some work with that flare up overnight but is in a lull right now....still very up in the air but if you average the models it still looks like Myrtle to Hatteras is the odds on favorite to take the hit....
All about strength. Check the 00z EPS for example. The southernmost solutions keep Florence above 1000MB for literally 72 more hours.
And check out the two groups of models on intensity at today 12z. The UK is the southern most model. And it is WAY WAY weaker than others.
SO the question is how fast does Florence strengthen. The faster she goes the more north she will get. There is a tiny window for a complete recurve but Florence would have to go through some RI in the next day for that. The OTS solution almost has no window now.
So lets check out our weakest model.
FLorence is passing well north of most of the UK ensemble members.
All in all so far the strength and intensity of the UK and EURO are likely too low. So the Myrtle beach-Wilmington landfall seems to be the track as of now.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 8, 2018 12:55:24 GMT -5
Thats a old GFS run though right....12Z was east of NC...the Ukie and CMC corrected north quite a bit so I wouldbt be surprised to see the Euro a ILM to MHX landfall on the run that just started....
Thats a old GFS run though right....12Z was east of NC...the Ukie and CMC corrected north quite a bit so I wouldbt be surprised to see the Euro a ILM to MHX landfall on the run that just started....
Yeah I was showing that gfs was closer on strength. And that the northern curve into NC was more realistic.
Euro landfalls ILM this run. The question is is the ridge being evolved right on the euro?
Post by downeastnc on Sept 8, 2018 14:07:04 GMT -5
Starting to look like a classic NC/SC border hit moving N...the question now is strength I think if it is turning by then as much as shown it will be weakening some so top end would be 125-130....
So the 12Z GFS runs counter to the hype party. Is that why internet discussions aren't really playing it up?
it pops a mystery ULL that runs up into the ridge and creates a weakness and no other model has it....even with the weakness the ridge orientation is such that a recurve shouldnt be modeled....the FV3 ( new) version of the GFS has had a ILM landfall for several runs now....