Post by downeastnc on Sept 8, 2018 19:46:58 GMT -5
Well normally I would be saying that being in the bullseye this far out is bad but honestly the models have a good handle on the ridge...and the spread between the Ukie and GFS is Hatteras to Myrtle if that holds up through 12Z tomorrow then we in trouble folks.....
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 8, 2018 22:17:28 GMT -5
This may be a touch melodramatic but its the latest from DTwxrisk.
Wxrisk.com 1 hr ·
Next update 12am or so... it will be audio with maps...
As a meteorologist and a long time weather weenie we like big historical events like hurricanes or blizzards and they get a lot of attention. For the most part blizzards are not big deal properly and dont kill lots of people.
Stalling and dying hurricanes over land masses can and do produce tornadoes and widespread flooding which can become quite severe. The fact of the matter is that some of the people readin this Facebook page ...will by September 20th will have gone through ****. Some might lose family members ...some might lose Farms... Vineyards.... orchards... homes ..
Like I said the.... ****** is about to go sideways
If its slowing and stalling then the inland wind impacts could be lessened but coastal surge and rainfall would be worse. Still 5 days till landfall. So changes to angle of the hit and how fast it makes it's way inland and inland impacts are still possible.
Models started flirting with this landfall idea back 5 days ago. If it hits like modeled this will be one of the best modeled hurricane events in history.
Still got that sneaky suspicion its a SC storm. The ukie and euro ensembles still west so until they move north then im gonna stick with the most southern solutions they represent. They've been right so far.
So it's a new day. What's the excuse du jour for nobody even mentioning the existence of the GFS? Seems strange.
Mostly cause it sucks......but seriously the FV3 version of the GFS has this .......which is close to the Euro etc the OP GFS came further west as well but still skirts 50 miles east of Hatteras....
Look at the NHC forecast wind field. Have you ever seen anything like it?
im skeptical of solutions that are so hyped and potentially disastrous. This one has me nervous. If we get a 100mph hurricane 60 miles southwest of us per nhc along with the rainfall totals it will be devastating.
Add the exceptionally wet summer and everywhere could see massive tree lose( except the bozart hole which is still in drought conditions). This one has me worried.