Classic "ring of fire" -- a mid-summer set-up here in mid-May. Also, the latest SPC Day1 mentions the possibility of a derecho. So close but so far.
Big ole squall line blasting the mid atlantic tonight. Going to be interesting to see how much instability we get each day. Could see some random severe if we can avoid early morning clouds.
Post by snowlover91 on May 16, 2018 17:46:27 GMT -5
I love these days of tropical showers and storms.... knowing one could come at anytime and the heavy downpours. Some areas might see 3-6” or more by Sunday.
Storms were quick movers today. If that trend continues over the next 5 days then some areas where they train will get the lollipops of 3+ but elsewhere should be lower.
The 4 1/2-day rain total at my house, 5/16 through the present moment, is 2.44", including the .10" I picked upon around 3:00 this morning. The rain was distributed fairly evenly over the days, accompanied by occasional thunder and one close strike. So no spectacular events. But I must say, this is the kind of weather that makes spring my favorite season.
The 4 1/2-day rain total at my house, 5/16 through the present moment, is 2.44", including the .10" I picked upon around 3:00 this morning. The rain was distributed fairly evenly over the days, accompanied by occasional thunder and one close strike. So no spectacular events. But I must say, this is the kind of weather that makes spring my favorite season.
Yesterday was the main day for us, it rained heavily numerous times....the short to med range looks pretty much more of the same, most models have 2-3" over the next week or so....and then they all have some sort of tropical storm though its location and track vary widely run to run.
heavy rain here for the last hr or so, looks to continue for another hr or two might actually get 2-3" at this rate....
Yeah well, the back side of the front-end dump is about to clear my location, and I've got all of .22" in my gauge, which is about one-fifth what was forecast. That seems about right. -lol-
My rule of taking the QPF product and quartering it is pretty generous, really.
OK, it's past midnight and I got .25" on the day. And this was supposed to be the big day. So I got Lucy-footballed again, for the globzillionth time.
If I had a dime for every time my actual observed rainfall amounted to four times what was forecasted, instead of one-fourth, I'D BE BROKE. Someone tell me how that works exactly. Even better: Someone tell me how the Bozart Rule -- taking the QPF product and quartering it -- is not the righteous and ground-breaking insight that it obviously is. I'll wait right here.
OK, it's past midnight and I got .25" on the day. And this was supposed to be the big day. So I got Lucy-footballed again, for the globzillionth time.
If I had a dime for every time my actual observed rainfall amounted to four times what was forecasted, instead of one-fourth, I'D BE BROKE. Someone tell me how that works exactly. Even better: Someone tell me how the Bozart Rule -- taking the QPF product and quartering it -- is not the righteous and ground-breaking insight that it obviously is. I'll wait right here.
The bozart rule does seem to be correct more times than not. We will get the rare overachiever but This is rare.
I did have a good bit of rain in the overnight downpour. I didn't check my rain gauge on the way out the door to work but eyeballing the amount of standing water id guess at least .75 fell.
According to that. Where I'm at I would actually be in the one inch totals in the dark green. That seems completely reasonable being that I had a huge downpour about 4 in the morning last night