Euro was a Hugo track and the GFS kills the mid atlantic but its ensembles are further SW. Long ways to go.
Probably not quite a Hugo track as its turning more than the Hugo track I would think that Euro run would put the next plot of central VA somewhere, either way lets hope it is wrong because any landfall between Charleston and Cape Lookout moving NNW or N would be basically Hazel part duex.....timing is the difference now, GFS has it right off Hatteras at hr 186 the Euro has it way in the Bahamas at that time, the faster GFS timing allows Irma to get captured in the trough on the GFS, by the time the Euro landfalls the GFS has Irma near Greenland....the GFS and Euro are pretty close at 120 but the Euro ridges in a bit more and heads more west into the Bahamas ( maybe factoring in a little ridge pumping due to size and strength of Irma?) where the GFS keeps the turn going and stays east of the Bahamas cutting the corner and getting north faster. Gonna be a back and forth week....the big take away is no model really has fish that they did earlier so unless we see a trend back that way soon a landfall somewhere seems a fairly good bet
This is the Euro 850 mb wind field....so figure about 70-80% of these winds would make it to the surface and given how strong and annular it is it will be getting them winds down well well away from the center.
Euro was a Hugo track and the GFS kills the mid atlantic but its ensembles are further SW. Long ways to go.
I’m not expecting clarity from the models until Monday and Tuesday. They’ll be doing upper air missions on Monday which will help the model runs out that night quite a bit. Also, the typhoon recurving will have some chaotic effects on the energy in the atmosphere the next 2-3 days which will give models trouble. I expect Monday night into Tuesday we will start seeing a strong consensus develop.
Euro was a Hugo track and the GFS kills the mid atlantic but its ensembles are further SW. Long ways to go.
I’m not expecting clarity from the models until Monday and Tuesday. They’ll be doing upper air missions on Monday which will help the model runs out that night quite a bit. Also, the typhoon recurving will have some chaotic effects on the energy in the atmosphere the next 2-3 days which will give models trouble. I expect Monday night into Tuesday we will start seeing a strong consensus develop.
Yeah an OTS consensus.....already EPS is inching that way.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 2, 2017 10:34:05 GMT -5
Think of all the things we are hoping the models have right in this range (8-10 days), ridge strength and location, trough strength and location, how deep the storm is, does the trough cut off if so where and which way does that cut off move, whats if the trough is 12-24 hrs faster or slower than currently modeled....etc etc etc....it will be mid week before we can even begin to feel like the models are able to have it right and then if they dont agree it will only get worse lol....
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 2, 2017 16:29:53 GMT -5
Euro ensembles shifted west some today with the mean scraping the Outer Banks. GFS ensembles have two camps; one takes it further south ino FL/GA and other camp takes it into the Outer Banks. Models will struggle to figure out the trough and ridge strength for a few more days so expect some additional shifts to take place. The speed of Irma will also play into things. Way too early to rule out or narrow down any scenario but top two scenarios seems to be an Outer Banks recurve or a SC/NC landfall.
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 2, 2017 17:40:14 GMT -5
Here is landfall, Over Hatteras and right over Chesapeake bay. Would be a disaster from NC outer banks to at least DC. Norfolk would be seriously damaged.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 2, 2017 18:35:01 GMT -5
At this range I find it important to pay closer attention to the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles for several reasons below.
1. You'll get a wide variety of options, as the models increase in confidence you'll see the solutions "converge" very close to one another. 2. You have a wide range of possible outcomes that help give a good "average" track for the overall ensemble. 3. At extended ranges, the ensembles are much better at identifying a trend and key features than an individual OP is outside 144 hours.
Now, having said that, let's look at the 12z GEFS versus the 18z GEFS. Euro ensembles also shifted west a little but I don't have access to the spaghetti charts for it.
12z GEFS, notice two camps and not much agreement.
18z GEFS, much better consolidation among the members.