GFS still keyed in on the ULL to the NW diving SW in front of Irma kicking her north into the trough....we will see how the rest of the 18Z run plays but it would have to do a Fran track at this point to hit the US and well those are not real common....
Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 17:56:54 GMT -5
Thats Jose. Looks like it gets close but heads ne. Still early though and who knows, could this be a repeat of 1955 with 2 canes hitting NC? I have to admit im getting all this from another site, maybe someone here smarter than me can elaborate.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2017 20:52:27 GMT -5
To early to say one way or the other, given the setup Irma is certainly a threat to hit the US but honestly it will be 5 days before its even almost to the islands and its 5-7 days away from us from there so there is no telling what the models will have in 5-7 days. That said its fun to track, its gonna be what it is gonna be all we can do is watch.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2017 21:32:36 GMT -5
Only 3 storms that where as strong as Irma is that far west have ever hit the USA....in general only 15% of storms that form that far east make it to the US.....so historically Irma has a 85% chance that she will miss wide right. I wonder when they will start Gulfstream flights to sample the western and central ATL to give the models better data to work with.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 31, 2017 22:17:37 GMT -5
But the key people are missing is the WSW motion will take her through the Herbert Box. When storms pass through that, the chance of a recurve plummets to 20% and then equal chances for NC or FL hit. Plus, GFS has been shifting SW while euro ticking north. They’ll meet in the middle which just so happens to be NC. I think Floyd is a good analog track for what this one does.