Major Hurricane Irma....

downeastnc
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Posts: 1,368

Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 29, 2017 20:53:37 GMT -5

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Post by downeastnc on Aug 29, 2017 20:53:37 GMT -5

Scary agreement among the globals for 93L to be a cane and a threat to the SE...I dont think I have ever seen the Euro/GFS/CMC this close together at 200+ hrs, heck the GFS and Euro could be the same map...friggen amazing. Of course it will jump around but dang if they didnt agree this afternoon.

Last Edit: Sept 1, 2017 19:47:19 GMT -5 by downeastnc

Wind junkie....need my fix come on spring

shaggy Moderator Posts: 1,076	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 29, 2017 21:06:30 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shaggy on Aug 29, 2017 21:06:30 GMT -5 Looks good now so we will likely see a TD in the next 2 days. 10 days is an eternity in the modeling world so many things will change. Overall Euro ensembles has it in a threatening position though.

shaggy Moderator Posts: 1,076	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 30, 2017 3:13:53 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shaggy on Aug 30, 2017 3:13:53 GMT -5 The models keep the general idea of a hurricane in the vicinity of the Bahamas in 10 days. 93L still looks good so I see no reason for it not to develop in its future.

downeastnc Moderator Posts: 1,368	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 30, 2017 5:16:06 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by downeastnc on Aug 30, 2017 5:16:06 GMT -5 Its probably TS Irma right now if they wanted to classify it they could and no one would really argue, its the best looking system that far east in ages.
	Wind junkie....need my fix come on spring

downeastnc
Moderator

Posts: 1,368

Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 30, 2017 7:33:27 GMT -5

Quote

Post by downeastnc on Aug 30, 2017 7:33:27 GMT -5

Aug 30, 2017 5:16:06 GMT -5 downeastnc said:

Its probably TS Irma right now if they wanted to classify it they could and no one would really argue, its the best looking system that far east in ages.

The NHC will begin advisories on this at 11am not sure if it will be a TD or TS Irma......

Wind junkie....need my fix come on spring

lexxnchloe Veteran Posts: 829	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 30, 2017 14:03:07 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 30, 2017 14:03:07 GMT -5 This may be the real deal. OTS or west?

shaggy
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Posts: 1,076

Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 30, 2017 15:42:01 GMT -5 via mobile

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Post by shaggy on Aug 30, 2017 15:42:01 GMT -5

Aug 30, 2017 14:03:07 GMT -5 lexxnchloe said:

This may be the real deal. OTS or west?

Who knows at this point. The key is to get it into the western atlantic and then see what the pattern looks like then.

I've seen many storms projected to be a threat and miss wide right. I've seen storms like Irene that end up further west

lexxnchloe Veteran Posts: 829	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 30, 2017 18:31:38 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 30, 2017 18:31:38 GMT -5 JoeBastardi seems to think its a threat.

lexxnchloe Veteran Posts: 829	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 6:51:51 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 6:51:51 GMT -5 06Z GFS a cat4 plowing into NC!!

shaggy Moderator Posts: 1,076	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 7:35:43 GMT -5 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shaggy on Aug 31, 2017 7:35:43 GMT -5 Aug 31, 2017 6:51:51 GMT -5 lexxnchloe said: 06Z GFS a cat4 plowing into NC!! Yeah the gfs is a hit but the euro is well south through cuba.

lexxnchloe Veteran Posts: 829	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 8:36:19 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 8:36:19 GMT -5 GFS has been all over the place from florida keys to east of bermuda and now the carolinas.

downeastnc Moderator Posts: 1,368	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 8:57:23 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2017 8:57:23 GMT -5 Gonna be a cane at 11am I bet already has a eye that should be clearing out in the next few hrs... tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_02.html
	Wind junkie....need my fix come on spring

lexxnchloe Veteran Posts: 829	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 10:18:18 GMT -5 NCHurricane likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 10:18:18 GMT -5 100 mph

downeastnc Moderator Posts: 1,368	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 15:23:13 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2017 15:23:13 GMT -5 Gonna be a beast of a cane and have a huge wind field by the time it gets close to the US, one of those 400-500 mile wide TS wind fields with cane winds out 120 miles from the center.... This is a scary look....
	Last Edit: Aug 31, 2017 17:14:31 GMT -5 by downeastnc Wind junkie....need my fix come on spring

lexxnchloe Veteran Posts: 829	Major Hurricane Irma.... Aug 31, 2017 16:00:36 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 16:00:36 GMT -5 YIKES, cane winds out to 1200 miles??

Post by downeastnc on Aug 29, 2017 20:53:37 GMT -5

Post by shaggy on Aug 29, 2017 21:06:30 GMT -5

Post by shaggy on Aug 30, 2017 3:13:53 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on Aug 30, 2017 5:16:06 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on Aug 30, 2017 7:33:27 GMT -5

Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 30, 2017 14:03:07 GMT -5

Post by shaggy on Aug 30, 2017 15:42:01 GMT -5

Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 30, 2017 18:31:38 GMT -5

Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 6:51:51 GMT -5

Post by shaggy on Aug 31, 2017 7:35:43 GMT -5

Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 8:36:19 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2017 8:57:23 GMT -5

Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 10:18:18 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on Aug 31, 2017 15:23:13 GMT -5

Post by lexxnchloe on Aug 31, 2017 16:00:36 GMT -5