Yeah and we are not sure the Euro is even OTS.....though it looks like it. I imagine the 12Z runs will be different again, the models have a very complicated looking pattern over teh USA forming up around the time Irma approaches and how that plays out will have a lot to do with eventual track. I would focus on hr 144, thats 7 days anything beyond that is still a huge ?.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 1, 2017 11:09:35 GMT -5
NHC with a fine example of forecasting versus model hugging in last disco this is also a problem since the last plot of Irma has her passing south of the 20N 60W benchmark and the chances of a US landfall is much higher for canes that do that.
Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster mentioned above.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 1, 2017 19:49:34 GMT -5
GFS ens were all landfalls into FL/SC only 2 of the ens had it miss to the east.....most models also have ridiculously low pressures its going to be a long 7 days. Hopefully by next Friday we have a better idea what the USA is facing.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 1, 2017 23:37:15 GMT -5
Plenty of time to watch this one. GFS is just barely missing our coast, CMC stalls in the Bahamas and the Euro would probably be a NC hit. Since this is 8-10 days out we have plenty of time to watch it. Should be a massive storm too.