Post by snowlover91 on Sept 2, 2017 18:40:54 GMT -5
Btw, the GFS output of sub 900mb is probably overdone but the signal it's picking up on is favorable poleward outflow and super warm SST's which would promote rapid intensification and growth of the storm. Here is an image depicting that.
The GFS is obviously way off on pressure there is no way a sub 900 cane tracks from the Bahamas to land falling at ILM....it will probably be closer to 920-940 range....still crazy to look at....and even if its "only" 920-940 its still Hazel only slower.....
The GFS is obviously way off on pressure there is no way a sub 900 cane tracks from the Bahamas to land falling at ILM....it will probably be closer to 920-940 range....still crazy to look at....and even if its "only" 920-940 its still Hazel only slower.....
Yeah GFS has a tendency to do that, at least the new one does. I really miss the old one, no telling what’ll happen this winter when we get a storm to track... we still have a long ways to go before models begin locking on to a specific solution. I’m think a Floyd type track is very possible here though.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 3, 2017 7:28:58 GMT -5
I went back and looked at old runs of the Euro... it’s shocking how well it has done in the extended range. Here is a comparison from an old day 10 run versus day 5 now.
Yeah lets hope this is wrong once the datas from the recons gets ingested we will probably see it move some.....then again this is pretty much the favored track for a trapped cane trying to go poleward up the east coast.
The over night runs are concerning a little. The chances of the models being this right this far out is pretty low. However we have seen models be right in the winter with their early long range forecast. We have seen them show a storm lose it and then get back to their earlier projections closer to the event. It would be super rare for this landfall consensus to be right 8 days out.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 3, 2017 12:10:32 GMT -5
It’s actually not hard to see the models being right. All the players are well modeled and agreed upon within 120 hours or less. The future track of Irma will depend upon two things; the weakness left behind by the trough and the strength of the ridge building in. The models agree very well about the trough, that’s under 144 hours, so that won’t change much. The strength of the ridge will be the difference from this hitting NC or bending further south into SC. Imo this is a Carolinas storm and likely a Floyd track.