It’s actually not hard to see the models being right. All the players are well modeled and agreed upon within 120 hours or less. The future track of Irma will depend upon two things; the weakness left behind by the trough and the strength of the ridge building in. The models agree very well about the trough, that’s under 144 hours, so that won’t change much. The strength of the ridge will be the difference from this hitting NC or bending further south into SC. Imo this is a Carolinas storm and likely a Floyd track.
Could see this pulling a hugo. The 12z GFS would be bad for interior NC but much less for us east of 95. Still a long ways to go on this one. Wouldn't be surprised to see a shift of some sort in modeling once the gulf streams start flying missions.
Too bad we still have to wait three to four more days before we have to wait 3 or 4 more days after that even. So far out still I am just feeling this is someone else storm and not ours.
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 3, 2017 19:08:45 GMT -5
Here is something you wont probably ever see again. A forecast of a 857 mb cane in the SW ATL, or anywhere for that matter. I wonder why some models are going nuts with intensity?
Here is something you wont probably ever see again. A forecast of a 857 mb cane in the SW ATL, or anywhere for that matter. I wonder why some models are going nuts with intensity?
Not sure what it means but people on American weather are saying the new gfs and hmon are not "ocean coupled" so they will continue to run ridiculously low pressures and that they can't be taken verbatim.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 3, 2017 20:05:51 GMT -5
Yeah the GFs and HMON have some convective issues due to a lack of ocean coupling which is why you’re getting the insane pressure drops. What it does show though is a pattern favorable for a very powerful storm. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a category 5 in the Bahamas based on the favorable environment it will be in. Track is still a bit of a mystery. I expect models will begin shifting back north a bit either tomorrow or Tuesday, similar to how they do in a winter storm.