When will Gulfstream upper-air soundings get ingested into the models? I thought I had heard Monday...but then yesterday someone told me they had already started. Anyone know the truth?
When will Gulfstream upper-air soundings get ingested into the models? I thought I had heard Monday...but then yesterday someone told me they had already started. Anyone know the truth?
Recon started yesterday and gulfstream was scheduled to start today.
As I catch up on last night's runs it's clear a turn should happen at some point. The euro run is earlier with the turn and hits nc and the gfs and cmc later. It would only take a turn 150 miles or a little More to the east to get the gfs and cmc in line with the euro. That's a bad thing to have to time and is going to give EM's a long week ahead.
Scratch that bozart only flights scheduled today are recon. Tomorrow they have 2 regular recon 2 tail radar flights and one gulfstream flight scheduled.
The models tend to have a bias to not turn the system soon enough, thats why all those storms that hit us where "suppose" to hit somewhere south of here...the Euro is still a Cat 3/4 into ILM. Also the GFS/CMC are about as far west as they could possibly get with the ridging over TX in place like it is....it really is a tough thing for them to figure out...also there isnt a lot of difference at H5 on the GFS between the NC hits and the Cuba hit its kinda weird the GFS just makes the ridge stronger without changing to much upstream....the crappy part is what if this is kinda like the GFS loses it in the mid range only to bring it back part of of the cycle in the 5-7 day range like it tends to do with winter storms lol. AS long as the Euro holds the turn sooner we should worry....
Seems to me, the EURO has been chasing the GFS all along, eh?
Well going back to some of the first euro runs it was actually had Irma over western cuba while the gfs was a recurve. They've sort of just switched places for right now.