It's funny on the other board how they're pulling out the German model and all these other crazy things to try to convince themselves it's going to be a big snow in Western NC lol. Anyways the 00z suite is pretty good just the Euro left to go.
Euro is a perfect run for those in Greenville to Raleigh. 850s are colder and temps crash. Very similar to GFS just more qpf. Here are the snow maps and precip output from tonight's Euro.
Am very much surprised to see such high amounts. I raised my expectation today from 2-4" to 4-6" and will stick with that for the overnight but suspect I may need raise again by lunch time tomorrow (I hope so anyway). Perhaps my "curse" did a 180 after getting trapped in last winter's blizzard up in D.C.
Still a full day's suite of models to get through tomorrow. Best of luck to all!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
06Z GFS pretty much matches the 00Z Euro/CMC we need to lock this in lol......anywhere from 10-14" on average for PGV between the GFS and Euro and thats at 10:1.....its gonna snow.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 5, 2017 8:07:59 GMT -5
Yeah models introduced mixing issues for pgv this morning... let's see 12z personally I feel like the battle zone will set up in southern Pitt county but we will see. Still the warm nose on the GFS literally gets abt 100 feet of atmosphere to 0c so not concerned yet
Bit concerned here in raleigh about this storm. I think wilson east will be fine but it appears everything will pull out of here by noon. Any chance this lingers until the evening in raleigh? If not...I am thinking 2-3 inches max.
This one has potential to equal the dec 26th 2010 storm but i'm always concerned about the dreaded warm nose that inevitably shows up in the last 36hrs of modeling.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 5, 2017 9:51:43 GMT -5
Yeah this has some arctic air to work with.. not an anemic dying cold air mass we normally have. The nam is overamping the storm like it usually does. Still am pretty confident everyone from southern Pitt west stays snow
Bit concerned here in raleigh about this storm. I think wilson east will be fine but it appears everything will pull out of here by noon. Any chance this lingers until the evening in raleigh? If not...I am thinking 2-3 inches max.
Raleigh should be looking at the minimum a 12 hr storm starting 10pm Friday and lasting through lunch satuday