Post by lowpressure on Jan 5, 2017 10:02:04 GMT -5
Looks like a nice overall event for most of NC. 12Z NAM has several scared. Upper levels were better, surface representation was wonky. It will correct itself shortly.
Bit concerned here in raleigh about this storm. I think wilson east will be fine but it appears everything will pull out of here by noon. Any chance this lingers until the evening in raleigh? If not...I am thinking 2-3 inches max.
Raleigh should be looking at the minimum a 12 hr storm starting 10pm Friday and lasting through lunch satuday
Yeah...what I was worried about...a night time storm...sigh
So far good for you bad for us on the gfs. We just.might watch this one trend away from us down east here.
GFS did certainly move the snow axis out of the Coastal Counties to I-95. Felt this was an I-85 special all along. Still some fine tuning for sure.
Warm nose almost always rears its ugly head. In CLT area we will almost always see mixing issues no matter what the models say. 10+ inches is encouraging, but I feel too high here.
Bet the warm nose is overdone.....this setup should allow the GOM low to move more ENE and its not gonna be a issue....the Euro run should be fun it was to warm up till last night when it finally figured the BL out and now the other models seem to be struggling with the cold air.....
this is total snow depth taking other ptypes into consideration so out of the 14" the GFS shows for us we loss 3" to sleet....so who here seriously has a problem with 11" of snow and sleet?
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 5, 2017 11:47:11 GMT -5
I can see the storm continuing to edge north. past six runs of GFS has slowly but surely ticked NW and stronger with the track.
I just did some deeper analysis of the GFS run and found that there never rly is much of a warm nose. Our sounding is Isothermal. The sleet threat comes into play about the first 3 hrs of the peak of the storm. In that timeframe a monstrous .6 qpf falls (.2 an hour= 2inch hour snow rates) With an isothermal sounding at this time and that much qpf its safe to say we stay snow/sleet mix if not mostly snow throughout this timeframe with HEAVY snow... the sleet could be deafening lol. All in all still a wonderful hit for PGV once we get inside 24 hrs nam and rgem and even hrrr may help nail down where the heaviest precip sets up. the heavier the better for pgv.
But recent trends are a little concerning. Tyler pointed out our storms tend to trend too far NW then adjust back south the final day of the storm. SO far the models have followed their historical procedure to a "T" I just hate placing my hope on a last ditch trend cooler
Last Edit: Jan 5, 2017 11:49:15 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Looks like a nice overall event for most of NC. 12Z NAM has several scared. Upper levels were better, surface representation was wonky. It will correct itself shortly.
Welcome back! I expect models will tick N again at 18z before settling in 00z tonight. They may adjust slightly S again tomorrow. That's the pattern I've noticed with most of our storms and it appears to be happening with this one also. RGEM is preferred model under 48 hours especially for transition zones.
I can see the storm continuing to edge north. past six runs of GFS has slowly but surely ticked NW and stronger with the track.
I just did some deeper analysis of the GFS run and found that there never rly is much of a warm nose. Our sounding is Isothermal. The sleet threat comes into play about the first 3 hrs of the peak of the storm. In that timeframe a monstrous .6 qpf falls (.2 an hour= 2inch hour snow rates) With an isothermal sounding at this time and that much qpf its safe to say we stay snow/sleet mix if not mostly snow throughout this timeframe with HEAVY snow... the sleet could be deafening lol. All in all still a wonderful hit for PGV once we get inside 24 hrs nam and rgem and even hrrr may help nail down where the heaviest precip sets up. the heavier the better for pgv.
But recent trends are a little concerning. Tyler pointed out our storms tend to trend too far NW then adjust back south the final day of the storm. SO far the models have followed their historical procedure to a "T" I just hate placing my hope on a last ditch trend cooler
That's what I am talking about......worse case we are maybe 50/50 snow sleet but it will be crazy rates and huge pellets.....it will cut our totals but either way we still looking at 10-12" lol so I am ok with that....