I would think a miss east is more likely than a early phase at this stage, of course anything can change but lets hope we see the normal suppressed track on the GFS until we get 24-36 hrs out.....
I am really liking the cmc, this thing needs to run up the coast about 150 miles offshore.......lol
Better hope the Michigan wave doesn't interact too much and cause this to phase too early and screw us all while crushing the MA.
That's the one concern I have at this point. Otherwise if that doesn't mess things up we are looking set for a nice snow. Euro was big overnight while GFS went to the previous Euro look of suppressed lol. Euro had widespread 10" amounts from west of RDU to Greenville area. Plenty cold aloft and at the surface too.
So far for 12z runs we have GFS slightly south, CMC basically the same, NAM slightly better with energy separation and UK with an amped coastal runner.
Better hope the Michigan wave doesn't interact too much and cause this to phase too early and screw us all while crushing the MA.
That's the one concern I have at this point. Otherwise if that doesn't mess things up we are looking set for a nice snow. Euro was big overnight while GFS went to the previous Euro look of suppressed lol. Euro had widespread 10" amounts from west of RDU to Greenville area. Plenty cold aloft and at the surface too.
So far for 12z runs we have GFS slightly south, CMC basically the same, NAM slightly better with energy separation and UK with an amped coastal runner.
We need the UKIE to be over amped as per its usual bias. If it was 100 or so miles further east we would be in much better shape. Worried about that Michigan energy though as the models slowly start to hint at more interaction.
IF the Euro holds serve in a hr then this is locked up, the Ukie is overamped as per its bias, the GFS is to suppressed which is what we want it to be 3 days out and the CMC and Euro are close to each other and show a good hit....that's fricken perfect for 3 days to go....this is right where every model should be based on its bias for a decently big snow for us......sure it can go wrong its NC and old man winter is a fickle SOB but if you blend everything and account for the trends we expect in each of them then 3-6" for the greater PGV area is a pretty solid guess....6-8" might even be likely
IF the Euro holds serve in a hr then this is locked up
So ... I'm hearing the Euro didn't hold serve. Now what? Is it settling into its pre-storm blackout that models typically go through, losing the storm temporarily only to bring it back later?
The Ukie and Euro both phase to soon bringing us a nice cold rain.......this is possible, but the Ukie and to a lesser extent the Euro tend to overdo the SW dig of the northern stream so they may simply be overdoing it, at least that's the hope.....there needs to be "some" interaction between the streams and as usual small changes upstream can have huge effects on us.....still its just one set of runs and I suspect/hope the Ukie will trend SE as it corrects for the early phase, oddly the Euro does seem to follow the Ukie a bit in these setups with the energy phasing and that might explain how it went from a big dog to almost nothing for us in one run.....I still think the overall look is good for us, its legit cold air and we just need the two streams to not get together until they are further east.....
Last Edit: Jan 3, 2017 13:58:02 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Okay ... I'm sold on seeing flakes but I need see tonight's 00Z runs before I buy into any accumulation. Knocking on wood this turns into some excellent storm tracking. Good luck all!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
This is a classic central eastern NC snowstorm setup, if the pieces fall into place it will be a decent storm.....but there are several ways as usual for it to go bad and I wont buy into anything more than a average hit until late Thursday into Friday, I think 1-3" is a fairly safe bet for eastern NC west of Hwy 17....right now Pitt CO is to far SE to cash in on the Euro/Ukie and to far NW on the GFS, but you never want to be the bullseye this far out....if you take a model blend it pummels central and eastern NC....lets hope that happens.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 3, 2017 16:34:08 GMT -5
I agree Downeast. I have made forecasts for a few years now and published them on my facebook page. I have found in times like these the solid bet is just take the mean of EVERY model. that's what me and Tyler did for hurricane Matthew and when all other forecasters just followed the couple models that decided to take it further off the coast we didn't because we took a "mean" approach....and NAILED it lol
sorry that I am not super active right now. The page is exploding and with big events I'm getting easy 20,000 views a post. Matthew was up in the 200,000 range.... so much of my designated weather time goes into making forecasts now rather than enjoying good old model watching... anyways I will be around
Last Edit: Jan 3, 2017 16:37:58 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
MHX seems pretty bullish for them so their confidence in a snowstorm must be pretty high for them to use this language at 72+ hrs, stuff like 50% chance of accumulating snow and a chance for "several" inches which usually means 3"+ from them.....
For Fri init weak low near cst will depart with just slight chc of rain early with highs in the 40s. Secondary sfc low expected to develop to the S Fri night then lift NE offshore of the coast thru Sat. GFS conts to be further offshore with less precip but greater threat of snow for imd cst. ECMWF and CMC show a bit stronger low closer to cst with more rain cst to mix or snow deep inland...and forecast is closer to this solution. Given uncertianty have cont with high chc pops Fri night thru Sat with mainly snow will inland...mix rain/snow for the highway 17 region and more rain cst. As precip ends shld be all snow as much colder air surges in later Sat into Sat night however some doubt on how much moisture left as colder air arrives. Highs Sat will hold in the 30s all areas with lows Sat night around 20 inland to around 30 Cape Hat.
Sunday through Tuesday...Cold arctic high pres will build in thru Mon then begin to slide off the coast Tue. Dry weather expected with highs in 30s Sun and Mon with lows in teens inland to 20s cst Sun night. Temps will moderate a bit Tue as thicknesses increase with 40s area wide.
18Z GFS sticks to its guns and if anything the precip shield is more expansive so more snow further inland without a shift in low track, if it does trend NW 75 miles by game time we will get a big dog...the GFS refuses to phase and turn up the coast...I hope its right...and 75 miles closer to the coast....PGV snow totals up 2-3" over 12Z GFS......so from 1" to 4" lol
Last Edit: Jan 3, 2017 17:06:48 GMT -5 by downeastnc
