I'm kind of bummed to see sleet and freezing rain possibly coming into the picture, though. Carolina concrete.
On the other hand, Wilmington had this to say at 3 a.m. --
FOR MOST AREAS PRECIP WILL EITHER BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A PERIOD OF SLEET COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT (DEPENDING ON THE STORM'S TRACK)
I don't buy what they're saying. They're probably going with climo but the depth of cold air at 925mb on all models, even Euro, has the mixing line as sleet then rain. Very little freezing rain. The soundings from the Euro and NAM also confirm sleet rather than freezing rain, and a large swath of it possibly. Btw the 12z nam is much improved fwiw.
Feeling better and better about a significant PGV to RDU sweet spot of 8" or more.
My feeling since the overnight runs has been 2-4" for Greenville (with rain changing to snow) and that remains unchanged through midday today. Perhaps tonight's or Thursday's runs may give me faith in breaking my 3" snow barrier ... we'll see.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Tim...I think you were in Wilmington right? I can tell you it is way different up here. I have seen 3 plus inches of snow being in wilson like 10 times at least in the past 13 years...with several 6 plus and a few over a foot if I go back to 2000.
Afternoon AFD out of Raleigh -- nothing too breathtaking:
WE HAVE A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IN PLACE THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE AREAS BETWEEN THE I-85 AND I-95 CORRIDORS AS THE PLACE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY OCCUR. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
Euro ens is much colder than the OP run there will be no rain and little chance of changeover at PGV once it goes snow Friday night...this is trending towards major winter storm for interior eastern and central NC, could be as good as Xmas 2010....
Post by Fountainguy97 on Jan 4, 2017 17:34:43 GMT -5
guys.... the 18z gfs is a thing of beauty
first off ratios for PGV goes increases to abt 13-14:1 for peak of storm then as it wraps up they sore to 17:1
This is a unique setup we are not normally blessed with. We have HEAVY SNOW falling with temps at 23... that alone should make you giddy with excitement
It only gets better from this point.
THis uses those ratios I talked about.
Next after this we enter the FREEZER from hour 60 to 150 below freezing and take a couple shots at -1 or even -3!!
Me and tyler have talked and decided to blend the EURO and GFS together with the GFS coming more north than the EURO would come south. This is EXACTLY how far we anticipated the GFS moving... now 00z run will be THE run for us to see if gfs holds and if EURO will come into agreement. At 00z we will officially be 48 hrs from the start of the event so this timing couldn't be more perfect for the bullseye to set up over us.
Ratios map and this is with Pitt Co. averaging around 1-1.5" QPF.....this COULD...COULD not is but COULD be a 12-15" hit for us and it should be a top 5 or so regardless.....at least as good as Dec 26 2010, maybe as good as Feb 24th 1989 or Dec 3 2000....the Euro ever so slowly is drifting Se and the GFS is ever so slowly bumping NW you blend that out and we are gonna get hammered....even if something goes wrong I think 3-4" is about the worst we could do....there is little chance the models have the cold wrong at H5 in this timeframe it would be unheard of for ALL of them to be that off, like Fountain said this isn't gonna be some 32 degree snowstorm its gonna be noon on Sat snowing to beat the band, heck might even be some thunder etc, all while the temps plummet into the low 20's......there will be wind and drifting snow like crazy.....if this ends up not happening I will give up on winter weather for good ( or at least till next winter) ...I say Pitt Co gets a general 6-10" with the chances of it busting higher than that better than it busting lower than that.....
Last Edit: Jan 4, 2017 18:13:57 GMT -5 by downeastnc
annddddddd......once again I get cold rain and maybe a few flakes mixing in while everybody else gets inches of the white stuff. Winter sucks! Bring on summer! lol I was hoping the GFS would hold firm, or maybe just slip a little more NW to share the wealth. At this point though, it looks like it won't make much difference for me if the Euro nailed it earlier and makes a coast runner. At least that way I can share some rain with you all lol. At least I get the ice Saturday night when all of the rain on the ground freezes....joygasm.
00Z NAM continues to increase snow totals and coverage area......things are coming together dont really see how this can go wrong at this point would take a early phase to pull the low up the coast and there is just no real sign of that anywhere if anything the trends have been away from that.....Euro now has lowest total for PGV at 4" and its gonna expand and up its southern totals tonight as it finally gets a clue to how good the cold air is....so PGV now has anywhere from4" to 10ish" on the models so 4-6" sounds pretty good as a first call...gonna be snowing hard with temps in the mod to low 20's come mid Sat morning....
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 4, 2017 22:23:22 GMT -5
Yeah NAM looks good it's slowly increasing snow totals and the vort is a little healthier each run. Now we need to see what the globals show. As we get under 36 hours the high res models will be great for picking up banding and the heaviest areas. I agree Ron, a widespread 6-10" with potential to bust higher is certainly possible so long as no major mixing issues.