Post by snowlover91 on Jan 3, 2017 18:29:51 GMT -5
18z GFS a tick NW with the precip shield. The NW trend for the GFS is probably starting and some of the amped models may tick SE a little to form a consensus in the middle imo. The I-95 corridor is especially favored in these setups if that type of track holds. The 18z GEFS mean is impressive.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 3, 2017 23:37:47 GMT -5
Our big dog is turning into a chihuahua at this point lol. Every model is trending weaker/suppressed like the GFS which would be a nice snow for the coast but inland areas wouldn't do well.
Our big dog is turning into a chihuahua at this point lol. Every model is trending weaker/suppressed like the GFS which would be a nice snow for the coast but inland areas wouldn't do well.
Not so sure about that. With the 00Z GFS I've gone from a chihuahua to a middle-sized hound -- about .70" of QPF as far as I can tell on the NCEP graphic. I like the tick northwest, which I was sort of expecting. Really, now I'm more worried about too much northwest migration, and mixing spoiling my snow cream.
Lots of time left. Lots of changes yet to come. I don't believe anything yet.
This is a classic central eastern NC snowstorm setup, if the pieces fall into place it will be a decent storm.....but there are several ways as usual for it to go bad and I wont buy into anything more than a average hit until late Thursday into Friday, I think 1-3" is a fairly safe bet for eastern NC west of Hwy 17....right now Pitt CO is to far SE to cash in on the Euro/Ukie and to far NW on the GFS, but you never want to be the bullseye this far out....if you take a model blend it pummels central and eastern NC....lets hope that happens.
This will be my 13th winter in North Carolina and so far my 3" barrier has held. If we get 3" it will be the third time for me, lol.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
Latest GEFS totals, the mean is consistently putting the highest amounts from Jacksonville to Washington. This will probably tick NW as we get closer if it takes the usual N trend. I now count 12 out of 20 members with significant (greater than 3") snow falling along and east of I-95.
Euro is full of surprises tonight. Big ice storm and big snow too for part of NC. Here are the total snow accumulations (no sleet or freezing rain factored in) and then the p-type maps.
18Z GFS is a foot for me, Euro is 2" of snow and some ice, CMC was 5" overall it feels like this is trending to a blend that works out for us.....need the Euro camp to go SE a bit and the GFS to maybe come NW a few more ticks.....NAM has precip breaking out around HR 63 so we are inside of 3 days on this thing now....we shouldnt see huge drastic changes in the models small shifts is hopefully all we see....chances of warning criteria winter weather for PGVis pretty high at this point, Tim you got a solid chance to break your 3" mark.
Last Edit: Jan 4, 2017 6:18:38 GMT -5 by downeastnc
I'm kind of bummed to see sleet and freezing rain possibly coming into the picture, though. Carolina concrete.
On the other hand, Wilmington had this to say at 3 a.m. --
FOR MOST AREAS PRECIP WILL EITHER BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A PERIOD OF SLEET COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT (DEPENDING ON THE STORM'S TRACK)
O6z is back to the beaches being the sweet spot. We need the camps to hold serve and then blend and if that happens then the 95 to 17 corridor would be good. Upper air data should start today so the next sets of models through tonight will be big runs.
I'm kind of bummed to see sleet and freezing rain possibly coming into the picture, though. Carolina concrete.
On the other hand, Wilmington had this to say at 3 a.m. --
FOR MOST AREAS PRECIP WILL EITHER BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A PERIOD OF SLEET COULD BE POSSIBLE SAT (DEPENDING ON THE STORM'S TRACK)
Yeah at the worst we mix with sleet the soundings are cold this will be mostly a snow event for PGV IMO, maybe similar to Dec 3 2000 where we mixed sleet at the height of the storm type setup.....if the sleet/ZR output on the Euro was actually snow for us then that map looks a lot different.....