Post by downeastnc on Feb 29, 2016 15:31:58 GMT -5
Talk severe threats here....any significant threat inside of 48hrs gets own thread....can keep most of the stuff outside of the region in here unless its a truely historic outbreak then of course it deserves its own thread.
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 29, 2016 23:54:32 GMT -5
Not seeing any threats imminent for NC in the next 6-8 days... Tomorrow could be active if some discrete supercells get going but instability doesn't look all that good for the time being.
yeah earliest I see a legit threat in the models around here is March 10-12th and its meh, the plains looked to get messed up bigtime though with a 2-3 day event March 8-10th....but that's a ways out so we shall see...
If March ends up as warm as the CANSIPS suggests then it could get pretty active mid to late month. Of course with our luck we will probably get a stout -NAO, super wedges keeping us in the 40s and lots of cold rain instead lol.
Noooo do not say that, if we finally get a -NAO now I will be unhappy lol. Then again that makes perfect sense, although the GFS is torchy with a SE ridge a lot of the run....a few cooler days with highs in the 50's but after this cool shot Thur-Mon it looks pretty seasonal.
Still think late March into April and May will be the worst....here is some tornado history for 1998 and 1999 is rough they where bad years and seemed more Dixie Alley and eastern US based but without looking I don't know where we were in the super nino cycle in 1998 compared to now so I am not sure which year would be the best analog for this super nino but both years where bad.
In Jan 1999 there were 219 tornados.....IN JAN!!!!and of course in May there was the infamous 318mph Moore F5
In 1998 there were several NC outbreaks....including the May 7th one with a F3 and F4 out in the piedmont near Granite Falls.....but there isn't much written up on them
Todays slight risk was a bust it appears, or at least it has been so far.....models still honking a big severe event over Texas and Dixie Alley later in the period
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 2, 2016 23:22:29 GMT -5
Long range the models indicate a substantial warmup beginning by March 6-8th and a big ULL meandering across Texas and Louisiana area. Moist southerly flow out ahead of it with dewpoints well into the 60s and highs in the 70s to near 80 here. Could be the next big event across the SE depending on track and timing.
maybe something out west in the lower MS valley Mon/Tues
...D4/MON AND D5/TUE... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT 12Z/MON SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS NEB BY 12Z/TUE...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SRN CA COAST ACROSS BAJA CA TOWARDS SONORA. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY EJECT FROM ERN CO TO THE MID-MO VALLEY...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE MIXING INTO CNTRL KS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. WHILE MOISTURE QUANTITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE OVERLY GREAT...RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG MUCH OF THE DRYLINE BY MON EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASE.
DESPITE A PROBABLE LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE GREATER MUCAPE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON D5 VERSUS D4 GIVEN RICHER MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SPREADING INLAND FROM THE WRN GULF. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION...ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING COULD OCCUR ACROSS S TX. THIS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS TUE EVENING/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...A STRONG SLY LLJ SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS MAY SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION TORNADO RISK...WITH HAIL/WIND THREATS BEING MORE PREDOMINANT UPSTREAM
Last Edit: Mar 4, 2016 21:30:59 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Is it just me or is Mississippi to Alabama becoming the new tornado alley? They have been getting killed the last 6 years. Just curious, what do the numbers show?
Hey ron. I got the 165mph wind gust in Goldsboro from memory. (It was on TWC) The 135mph at WCTI as well. What makes me mad is I have emailed WCTI several times asking for photos of the squall line as it past over New Bern. They should have it because several years later they showed it again during anniversary addition. I was ignored with my request everytime.
Last Edit: Mar 4, 2016 22:11:23 GMT -5 by beffreywx
We can hope for some storms, pretty muggy out today starting to hate the warm already....
Yeah it may be a hot summer too with La NiƱa taking over. Hope we get some good severe weather this week because models are trying to cool us down for the second half of March.