Post by snowlover91 on Mar 31, 2016 21:03:40 GMT -5
From reading the discussion it sounds like they expect strong storms to develop in the afternoon and then another round later in the evening into eastern areas. If we get good sun and get near 80 with dewpoints in the 60s we should see a few good storms form.
SPC mentioning the possibility for an upgrade to "enhanced" risk tomorrow morning if conditions warrant it. From what I'm seeing on high res models it looks like morning convection (wind and tornado threat) followed by a second round of afternoon storms moving in from the SW. Tornado threat and winds are the main threats it would seem.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Apr 1, 2016 6:59:01 GMT -5
Clouds will kill us. HRRR hinting at a big mcs down south and then it fades as It hits nc. Then a line of possibly tornados cells forms in western no and goes north of rdu. Wonder if one can get close enough to chase.
The big convective complex to our south likely hurt us in a very big way today. The blow off kept us mostly cloudy and I don't see any reason to fire off severe weather with this setup.
Post by snowlover91 on Apr 24, 2016 21:04:17 GMT -5
Had a nice thunderstorm move through the area Saturday and Friday also, a little wind 20-25mph gusts and sharp lightning. Coming up Larry Cosgrove is concerned about the first week of May being active for severe weather from Texas to the Carolinas so maybe something to watch soon.
Post by snowlover91 on Apr 26, 2016 23:38:21 GMT -5
According to the 4km NAM it looks like we will have quite the boundary setting up on Thursday with potential severe weather along and south of this line. The Pivotal Weather Maps are really nice, some of the best free maps available imo and show the boundary quite nicely.
SBCAPE 21z Thursday
Supercell Composite
Lifted Index
Composite Reflectivity, indicates supercells are possible.
Post by snowlover91 on Apr 27, 2016 9:14:35 GMT -5
A lot of times these boundary events where you have a warm, moist airmass to the south with a sharp gradient you can get some nasty storms along and south of that boundary. Sometimes you can get some tornadoes too along that boundary although the main threat Thursday would probably be hail and wind.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Apr 27, 2016 10:49:30 GMT -5
Yeah nam looking better for instability tomorrow. Looks like tomorrow will be very cellular atleast to begin with so a couple spin ups may happen but there isn't anything to really sustain a full fledge supercell. Will be one of those days where 10miles away gets a nice storm while you sit in full sun. Later in the afternoon a broken line may form
Post by snowlover91 on Apr 27, 2016 16:32:43 GMT -5
Some intense storms firing up over northern NC with one showing weak rotation along with a hail core developing. These should slowly drop south over the evening with the boundary sitting just north of us tomorrow. Could be some nasty storms and I think we see an upgrade tomorrow to a slight risk. With temps 82-85 and dew points 68-72 will be some plenty of instability to work with and NAM indicating some weak shear present.
Post by snowlover91 on Apr 28, 2016 1:46:25 GMT -5
Called it! SPC upgrades part of NC to a slight risk tomorrow. Main threat is wind and hail with a few weak supercells possible. They only expect dewpoints in the upper 50s and mid 60s but the NAM has been indicating upper 60s to 70s for dewpoints.