Post by snowlover91 on Mar 13, 2016 0:05:16 GMT -5
The latest from Larry Cosgrove about the prospects of severe weather in the 11-15 day range.
I can see a looming problem for the Great Plains, Midwest, and Old South around March 27 - 29. Since the aforementioned trough will make only minor inroads into the center of the continent (with the subtropical high quite strong in the Bermuda position), there will be plenty of time to build up the dewpoint/instability profile. Strong southwest flow to the right of the disturbance could bring in a dry tongue from Mexico. If a "bolting" progression occurs, with a deep surface low forming in the Texas Panhandle and then pushing rapidly into the Great Lakes, expect a wide area of convective vulnerability from C, E TX....C, E OK....E KS....SE NE....C, S IA....S WI....S Lower MI....OH....KY....TN....W GA....FL Panhandle....AL....MS....LA....AR....MO....IL....IN. It is "that time of year"
Post by downeastnc on Mar 13, 2016 12:51:40 GMT -5
Tomorrow might have a few severe storms in the area, and the showers today popping up look rather convective in nature....getting to be that time of year.
Tomorrow might have a few severe storms in the area, and the showers today popping up look rather convective in nature....getting to be that time of year.
Just checked radar and see what you mean. Surprised to see storms like this popping up today, was this expected? SPC now has a slight risk for western NC now and sounds like it could affect central and eastern NC as the storms roll east.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Mar 13, 2016 13:29:52 GMT -5
I've been traveling all week. Get back to the college tonight! Currently in Washington and its humid out! Not far from a tropical feeling. Cumulus clouds really thickening fast over the area. Severe weather has been lacking since Irene so maybe we can see a spring with 4000cape everyday and afternoon thunderstorms. Haven't seen that in a few years.
Post by downeastnc on Mar 13, 2016 14:53:24 GMT -5
I dont think anything to severe is gonna fire today, cape is 1000 shear is 20-30knts so good enough to maintain these storms not enough to get them going to strong, still might be a bit of hail given the profile and some winds 40mph in the best areas.....
Post by downeastnc on Mar 13, 2016 19:43:46 GMT -5
Arkansas having a rough evening, several tornadic cells there.....even a few confirmed....tomorrow looking more severe in western NC with a slight risk up now, mostly for hail and wind not looking tornadic but you never know..... timing shuts it off before it gets east......
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 13, 2016 23:06:15 GMT -5
Heard some nice rumbles of thunder today, clouds had the typical spring/summer puffy look to them with the muggy feel outdoors. Had a severe storm pass just to my north here in Knightdale... Always close but not close enough. SPC update should be out within the next hour or so I would think for the threat tomorrow, I'm thinking they extend the slight risk from the foothills to at least Central NC.
SPC adds slight risk to all of NC seems big hail a likely threat today, with some wind not looking like any real rotation threats but here in the east with the sea breeze its always possible
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS NC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
SC/N GA TO SRN OH...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM SE NEB INTO SW IA
AND NW MO...
...SUMMARY...
A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
...APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THROUGH LATE EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...AS A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND FROM THE PAC COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TN VALLEY
MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BUT A BELT OF ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN BANDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORMS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE EVENING. SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH THE TROUGH...IN COMBINATION WITH
WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...WILL SUPPORT A RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL EXTEND FARTHER N INTO SRN
OH...THOUGH WEAKER BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT WILL
TEMPER THE RISK.
FARTHER E INTO ERN NC...A SEPARATE AREA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER...AS WELL AS
IN THE ERN NC WARM SECTOR WITH ASSISTANCE FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZE.
WIND PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W...BUT
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON.
...MID MO VALLEY TONIGHT...
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET...IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL WAA...WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SE NEB. SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH TIME AND RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
Post by Fountainguy97 on Mar 14, 2016 10:59:08 GMT -5
Sun starting to come out here in Wendell. HRRR indicates a line forming in western NC. a broken segment pulling northeast through the RDU area and individual cells or a cluster in Eastern NC. Going to be a lot of moving parts. And if one or more groups merge could get rough as they blow up. And the sea breeze always is hard to follow
Post by downeastnc on Mar 14, 2016 11:30:17 GMT -5
Shear is meh but 30-40 knts should keep them organized enough to get marginally severe, thinking main threat will be big hail and SARS has that at 15% so someone will see 2" hail or better today I suspect.....
Shear is meh but 30-40 knts should keep them organized enough to get marginally severe, thinking main threat will be big hail and SARS has that at 15% so someone will see 2" hail or better today I suspect.....
Yeah some really cold air aloft, -18c at the 500mb level and with surface cape 1-2k across the area. I could see some golfball or larger hail with the worst storms today.
First storms are firing up south of rdu and maybe this is that cluster that gets us the hrrr has been showing. Full sun now with some puffy little clouds so heating is going to be fine.
Post by downeastnc on Mar 14, 2016 14:09:01 GMT -5
Cell south of F-V starting to rotate and get classic hook sig on radar......really surprised to see it might be a high base funnel , pwats and LCL are low