i imagine they will adjust the track up here a bit NW at 5pm
Maybe. But there's this, out of the Wilmington office at 3 p.m.:
LATEST TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHARPLY TURN MATTHEW NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IMPACTS IN THE LOCAL AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE 12Z ECMWF, WHICH WAS THE FIRST WITH THE SHARP EASTWARD TURN IDEA YESTERDAY, HAS REVERTED BACK TO A TRACK UP THE COAST ALBEIT WITH A WEAKER STORM. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING AND DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE NEXT NHC ADVISORY.
well, i did say 'a bit" lol. euro shows a weaker storm because so much time is spent with part of the core over land before it gets here. I dont think this will likely happen, but if matt stays offshore to just east of charleston, then gets picked up nne from there we could see a cat 2 here 105-110 sustained.
Post by snowlover91 on Oct 5, 2016 14:42:29 GMT -5
Jumping on the Euro train is the GFDL and HWRF now. So that puts the HWRF, GFDL, Euro, UKMET, CMC and NAM now in tracking this just offshore with possible landfall near Wilmington or close to it.
Yep only the GFS still on the other solution....now is this windshield wiping and we go back west tonight and tomorrow or is this the models going back to when they all agreed and eastern NC took the hit...personally the Euro and GFS vanishing that decently strong trough always looked suspect I think the models are pretty close now, the real question for us inlanders now is how much/sharp of a east curve is there...
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 5, 2016 15:27:18 GMT -5
Yeah we may being seeing the normal scenario where the models trend too far one way and have to correct... how many times has that put us in the bulls eye then dragged us out with 3 days left? We are sitting right where you want (maybe don't want) to be... we have models trending slowly back toward a NC hit with only a few runs before this thing is by Florida.
Now lets see what the models have for us this afternoon. GFDL has a storm interacting with a lot of land and weakening a lot on its way up the coast. The HWRF is back to the just off the coast solution with a dare I say BEAUTIFUL system...
Could you imagine staring that down?? it turns north and just BARELY miss the NC coast... it weakens slightly as it interacts with the trough but would pack a crazy punch if it gets inland. HWRF never touches land
Last Edit: Oct 5, 2016 15:28:26 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
That's a huge hurricane though, the eye is 100 miles across at least......no way that it gets that big....the amount of water a circulation that big would shove into the coast north of it would be pretty unprecedented.....
Nhc doesn't delve into the model data to much other than going with a blend and keeps any wind impacts well south of us in landers. The coastal areas could see some rough weather.
There has only been 1 run of models that has hinted at perhaps the trough being stronger and the storm being more north up this way....if the 18Z GFS gets further north and then the models at 00Z repeat or creep north some more they will adjust.....give it time its still 3 days or so out.
Last Edit: Oct 5, 2016 16:35:38 GMT -5 by downeastnc